An econometric analysis on tropical deforestation and wood ttrade using 1990 tropical forest resources assessment

移耕、放牧、采集薪材、伐木和火灾，特别是过度砍伐，被认为是热带森林砍伐的主要原因，这是一个当前和世界范围内的环境问题，引起了全世界的关注。然而，很难评估这些因果因素的相对重要性，因为它们是相互交织的。本报告试图整理这些因素，使用计量经济学的方法，即多元回归分析。我们利用粮农组织林业文件112“1990年热带国家森林资源评估”的横断面国家数据，罗马，1993年，x+59页。附附录和粮农组织林业系列第26号（粮农组织统计系列第110号）、《粮农组织森林产品年鉴》，罗马，各年。在分析国家毁林数据时，我们应该去掉一个尺度因子，因为在一个大的国家里，自然会发现更大的毁林。这项研究使用人均变量，因为森林砍伐是一种人为现象。研究发现，人均森林面积、农业面积和伐木面积对人均毁林有正向影响，而永久牧场面积对人均毁林有负向影响，这可能反映了非传统轮作和非法耕作以永久牧场代替森林为目标。

Shifting cultivation, grazing, gathering fuelwood, logging, and fires, especially if excessive, are considered as main causes for tropical deforestation, which draws world wide attention as a current and worldwide environmental issue. It is, however, very difficult to assess relative importance of these causal factors, since they are intermingled. This report tries to sort out these factors, using an econometric method, i.e.multiple regression analysis. We utilize cross sectional country data from FAO Forestry Paper 112, "Forest resources assessment 1990 tropical counties", Rome, 1993, x+59pp.with appendices and FAO Forestry Series No.26 (FAO Statistics Series No.110), "FAO yearbook forest products", Rome, various years.In analyzing country data on deforestation, we should remove a scale factor, since it natural to find larger deforestation in a lager country. This study utilizes per capita variables becauses deforestation is a human made phenomenon.This study reveals that per capita forest area, agricultural area, and logging area have positive effects on per capita deforestation, whereas permanent pasture area has a negative effect, probably reflecting non-traditional shifting cultivation and illegal farming target permanent pasture in place of forest.