Population Changes and Their Structural Factors in Long-Term Perspective

这项研究项目研究了从16世纪到21世纪初日本人口变化的模式和因素，使用了政府的汇总统计数据和微观层面的数据，这些数据来自近代早期的地方人口登记系统NINBERTU-RATAMAME-CHO和Shumon-ARATAME-CHO以及当代的全国调查。将研究中的四个世纪分为四个时期--从16世纪到德川时代末期(白松)的早期现代时期，现代前妇女时期，现代人口普查时期和战后时期，该项目试图结合正式的人口分析和多元分析，对人口变化的趋势和模式及其人口、社会经济和家庭决定因素进行实证分析。具体地说，我们考察了农村社区…不同生命阶段的死亡率、已婚妇女的生育率和家庭建设以及初婚和再婚的趋势和模式S在近代早期的日本东北部、中部和西南部较多。接下来，我们使用事件历史分析研究了东北农村社区死亡率、生育率、婚姻率和迁徙的决定因素。然后，我们利用日本帝国人口统计数据，分析了19世纪70年代至1919年日本前人口的结构和动态变化。该项目还研究了日本地震前时期死产的趋势和区域模式，以及1918-1920年西班牙烟道病的爆发，这些疫情影响了日本地震前的死亡率和人口。接下来，我们利用地级时间序列数据分析了从战前人口普查时期到现在的死亡率、生育率和婚礼的趋势、模式和结构性因素。最后，该项目使用来自大规模全国调查的微观数据，研究了战后日本生育率下降的模式和决定因素。通过一系列事件历史分析，我们考察了人口统计学和社会经济因素对初婚时机的影响，以及日本女性和男性采用的家庭构建模式。较少

This research project examined the patterns and factors of population changes in Japan from the 16th century to the early 2000s, using government aggregate statistics and micro-level data drawn from local population registers called ninbertsu-ratame-cho and shumon-aratame-cho during the early modern period and from national surveys in the contemporary period. Dividing the 4 centuries under consideration into 4 periods--the early modern period from the 16th century to the end of Tokugawa era (bakumatsu), the modern precensal period, the modern censal period, and the postwar period, the project sought to empirically analyze the trends and patterns of population changes and their demographic, socioeconomic, and household determinants, combining formal demographic analyses and multivariate analyses.Specifically, we looked at the trends and patterns of mortality at different stages of life, fertility and family building of married women, and first marriage and remarriage in rural communitie … More s in northeast, central, and southwestern parts of early modern Japan. Next, we examined the determinants of mortality, fertility, nuptiality, and migration in northeastern rural communities, using event-history analysis. We then analyzed the structure and dynamics of the precensal population changes from the 1870s to 1919, using the Japanese imperial population statistics. The project also examined the trends and regional patterns of stillbirths during the precensal period, and the outbreak of the Spanish flue in 1918-1920 that affected mortality and population of precensal Japan. We next analyzed the trends, patterns, and structural factors of mortality, fertility, and nuptiality from the prewar censal period to the present, using prefectural-level time-series data. Finally, the project looked at the patterns and determinants of fertility declines in postwar Japan, using micro-level data from large-scale national surveys. Conducting a series of event-history analysis, we examined the demographic and socioeconomic determinants of timing of first marriage, and family building patterns applying of Japanese women and men. Less