Economic Analysis of Declining Fertility

1. 婚姻涉及涉及不同世代的经济决策。这是因为与父母的同居、父母的收入、父母的收入转移等因素对结婚的可能性有很大的影响。劳动力市场存在队列效应，即毕业前失业率高的队列在未来有持续失业或非典型就业的强烈趋势。此外，澄清了这种队列效应在初中或高中毕业的人群中尤为明显。直到最近，导致日本出生率下降的主要因素是女性，比如不那么想要孩子，以及劳动力市场上更高的学历和职业。然而，随着战后婴儿潮一代的大批退休，劳动力市场对年轻男性的需求预计在未来几年将会增加，因此，预计对出生率也会产生积极的影响。工龄工资曲线越陡峭，员工在50多岁前半段退休的可能性越大，为了有效利用老年劳动力，有必要重新审视工龄待遇。而且，以公平评价高龄员工的业绩为宗旨，建立高龄员工培训制度的企业的退休率也较低。此外，在工作时间较短的员工比例较高的公司，55岁以上员工的退休率较低。日本在2000财政年度引入长期护理保险的目的是纠正非医疗原因住院的问题，并使医疗费用更有效率。利用国民健康保险收据数据对目的是否真正达到进行了检验，结果发现，在指定医院，老年人的出院率在引入长期护理保险后的一段时间内急剧上升，但在引入2年后的2002年，这一比率已经下降。因此可以说，实行长期护理保险对包括因非医疗原因住院在内的长期住院病人的影响仍然是暂时的。少

1. Marriage involves economic decisions that encompass different generations. This is because such factors as cohabitation with parents, parents' incomes, and the amount of income transfer from parents considerably affect the marriage probability.2. The existence of a cohort effect in the labor market was confirmed, namely, a strong tendency for the cohort with a high unemployment rate immediately before graduation to be continuously unemployed or atypically employed in the future. In addition, it was clarified that this cohort effect was especially apparent among those who only graduated from junior high school or high school.3. Up until recently, the main factors contributing to the decrease in the birthrate of Japan were on the female side, such as less preference for a child, and higher academic qualifications and careers in the labor market. However, the labor market demand for young men is expected to increase for the coming several years as postwar baby boomers retire en masse, … More and as a result, a positive effect on the birthrate is also expected.4. The steeper a seniority wage curve is in a company, the more likely its employees retire in the first half of their 50s, and in order for the companies to effectively use aged labor, treatments based on seniority must be reviewed. Moreover, the retirement rate is low in companies that aim to evaluate the performance of the aged workers fairly and have a training system for elderly employees. Further, the retirement rate for over 55 year olds is lower in companies that have a high rate of employees with shorter working hours.5. The purpose of the long term care insurance introduced in Japan in fiscal 2000 was to correct hospitalization for nonmedical reasons, and to make medical expense efficient. Whether the purpose was actually achieved was examined using the national health insurance receipt data which found that in designated hospitals, the discharge rate of the elderly dramatically increased for a while after the introduction of the long term care insurance, but already in 2002, 2 years after the introduction, the rate went down. Thus it can be said that effects of the introduction of the long term care insurance on long-term in-patient including hospitalization for nonmedical reasons remained temporary. Less