A Bayesian approach to the program evaluation of infrastructures

针对分段递减电价下居民燃气需求函数的估计问题，阐述了精确经济模型的贝叶斯估计方法。所获得的结果被收集在一篇文章中，该文章被注册为讨论论文，并提交给参考期刊以供可能的出版。其次，关于干线铁路的方案评估，我开发了一个新的统计模型，扩展了经典模型的治疗效果。针对该模型，构造了一种贝叶斯估计方法，并通过数值算例进行了验证。并将该模型和方法应用于九州高速铁路的实证分析。

Regarding the estimation of the residential gas demand function under decreasing block rate pricing, I elaborated a Bayesian estimation method for the exact economic model. Obtained results are collected in an article, which is registered as the discussion paper and is submitted for possible publication to the refereed journal. Next, regarding the program evaluation of the main line railroad, I developed a new statistical model that extends the classical model for the treatment effect. For this model, I constructed a Bayesian estimation method, which is checked by numerical examples. I also applied the model and the method to the empirical analysis of the high-speed railway line in Kyushu.