Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology

政府最近的一项政策涉及将创新作为行业长期增长的驱动力和全球竞争力的主要决定因素。特别是，互联网是一根？脊梁？为开展电子商务提供基础设施，并使效率效益和产品创新能够在其他部门实现，例如银行、金融、卫生和旅游业。这项研究估计了对预测互联网增长至关重要的网络效应。此外，结构模型增强了对潜在的互联网动态和对一般经济状况的影响的理解。重要的是，本文开发的方法适用于任何网络行业，以及许多具有很强互补性的非网络行业。

A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and tourism. This study estimates the network effect critical to forecasting Internet growth. Moreover, a structural model enhances understanding of underlying Internet dynamics and impacts on general economic conditions. Importantly, methods developed here apply to any network industry, and many non-network industries characterised by strong complementarity relations.