Identifying tipping points and safe operating spaces in sustainable fisheries management under future climate change

该项目的两个部分都取得了研究成果：首先，对40多个鱼类种群的临界点的分析揭示了这些种群的补充、生长、成熟以及自然死亡率和捕捞死亡率的动态对生命史参数变化的敏感程度。敏感性已被量化的生态股票特性的响应。在此基础上，研究了气候影响情景，通过这些情景，气温上升会影响生命史参数。通过这种方式，特别脆弱的种群已经确定，其脆弱性的原因已经被理解。第二，东北北极鳕鱼渔业的安全作业空间的分析，揭示了如何敏感，这个股票的生命史动态，包括招聘，增长，成熟，自然和捕捞死亡率是温度的变化。敏感性已被量化的生态和社会经济种群特征的反应。在此基础上，结合未来气候趋势的连续性，通过改变受管制的总可捕量和最小尺寸限制，对二维连续性管理战略进行了评价。通过这种方式，确定了该渔业未来安全作业空间的预期扩展，并了解了这种扩展的原因。

Research achievements have been accomplished in both parts of the project.First, the analysis of tipping points in 40+ fish stocks has revealed how sensitive the dynamics associated with the processes of recruitment, growth, maturation, and natural and fishing mortality in these stocks are to variations in life-history parameters. Sensitivities have been quantified in terms of responses of ecological stock characteristics. On this basis, climate-impact scenarios have been examined through which rising temperatures affect life-history parameters. In this way, particularly vulnerable stocks have been identified, and the causes of their vulnerability have been understood.Second, the analysis of the safe operating space for the Northeast Arctic cod fishery has revealed how sensitive this stock’s life-history dynamics involving recruitment, growth, maturation, and natural and fishing mortality are to variations in temperature. Sensitivities have been quantified in terms of responses of ecological and socio-economic stock characteristics. On this basis, a two-dimensional continuum of management strategies has been evaluated by varying the regulated total allowable catch and minimum-size limit, in conjunction with a continuum of future climate trends. In this way, an expected future expansion of the safe operating space for this fishery has been identified, and the causes of this expansion have been understood.