Research on soft system for warning- evacuation for sediment-related disaster

本课题的研究内容是构建实用的泥沙灾害预警疏散系统。作为分系统，对(1)涉沙灾害天气信息系统、(2)基于天气条件的预警疏散信息、(3)涉沙灾害发生预测系统、(4)预警疏散系统控制方案进行了研究，各分系统的研究成果如下：(1)开发了实时显示暴雨天气信息的互联网系统，并考察了在实际情况下的利用情况。并对某地区的天气信息系统案例进行了调查研究。(2)在基于天气条件的预警疏散信息方面，明确了针对互联网信息系统的涉沙灾害中尺度天气条件，明确了基于短时降雨预报的临界雨量的决策方法。(3)在涉沙灾害发生预测系统中，研究了地表塌陷预测数据库建设的信息获取方法，并进行了案例调查。在此基础上，建立了碎屑土灾害危险范围的预测模型。在此基础上，建立了基于广义塌陷预测模型（统计模型）和小带塌陷预测模型（物理模型）相结合的新预测系统模型，并通过实例应用进行了验证。(4)作为预警疏散系统的控制方案，创建了降雨观测信息采集/传递系统，并进行了案例验证。此外，还开发了交互式通信信息系统。

This research subject is building the practical warning and evacuation system of an sediment related disaster. Research was advanced as the subsystem about (1) weather information system for sediment-related disaster, (2)warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, (3)prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, and (4) control program for warning and evacuation systemThe research result of each item is as follows.(1) The Internet system that displays a heavy rain on real time as weather information was developed, and the utilization under the actual condition was investigated. Moreover, investigation examination was carried out about the case of the weather information system in an area.(2) About warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, the meso scale weather conditions of sediment related disaster aiming at the Internet information system were clarified, and decision method of the critical rainfall on the basis of short-time rain prediction was clarified.(3) In the prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, the information acquisition method for database construction was examined about the prediction of surface collapse, and case in-vestigation was conducted.Moreover, the forecasting model of the calamity dangerous range by debris soil was developed. Furthermore, the model for the new prediction system that combined the broader-based collapse forecasting model (statistics model) and collapse forecasting model (physical model) on the small zone was developed, and it verified by case application.(4) As a control program for warning and evacuation system, rainfall observation information collecting / transfer system of interactive communication for judging into this research group was created, and case verification, was performed. Moreover, the interactive communication information system was developed.