Determinant Factors of Fund Procurement Costs by Developing Countries in International Capital Markets

研究的主要发现如下：(1)最不发达国家主权债券收益率的决定因素与最不发达国家银团银行贷款利差的决定因素存在明显差异。(2)最不发达国家的融资额和其他借款条件（如借款期限）作为债券收益率或贷款利差的决定因素没有统计学意义。(3)宏观经济变量对债券收益率差的影响具有显著性；而贷款息差则没有这种意义。(4)从（收益率）息差和募集资金量的角度来看，主权债券、其他公共债券、私人债券和银团贷款的资本市场似乎是相互独立的。(5)鉴于这些国家的债务重组经验，债券投资者不像国际银行家那样重视。(6)地理因素是借贷的一种决定因素。拉美国家的情况是被要求支付比其他地区其他国家更高的风险溢价。(7)从人均GDP水平来看，较低收入国家在债券市场的风险溢价相对较低。在银行贷款市场，这种关系尚不清楚。(8)欧洲货币等信用评级机构的国家风险评估反映在债券收益率和银行贷款利差上。(9)为了享受有利的借款条件，借款国必须成功地对抗通货膨胀，平衡国家债务的到期构成，控制偿债比率。

Major finding of the research are as follows :(1)Determinant factors for the yield of bonds issued by LDCs' sovereignties are explicitly different from the determinants for the interest rate spread on the syndicated bank loans borrowed by LDCs.(2)No statistical significance can be found as a determinant factor for bond yield or loan spread in the amount of fund raised by LDCs and other terms of borrowing such as maturities of borrowing.(3)Macro-economic variables indicate statistical significance as critical determinants in relation with bonds' yield spread ; whereas no such significance can be found with loan spread.(4)From the view point of (yield) spread and the amounts of fund received, the capital markets for sovereign bond, other public bond, private bond and syndicated loan seems to be independent each other.(5)In light with debt rescheduling experience for the countries, investors for bonds pay less attention than international bankers.(6)Geographical factor is a sort of determinants for borrowing. The case of Latin American countries are demanded to pay higher risk premium than other countries in other regions.(7)By view of GDP per capita level, risk premium for lower income countries is reasonably lower in bond markets. The relationship is unclear in bank loan market.(8)Country risk appraisals by credit rating agencies including the Euromoney and others are reflected in bond yield and bank loan spreads.(9)To enjoy the favorable terms of borrowing the borrowing countries have to be success in combating the inflation, balancing the maturity composition of the countries debt, and controlling the debt-service ratio.