The Future of Human Reproduction: The Input of Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany in the International Framework for Eugenic Governance

在对日本PGT-M争论的演变进行了经验性探索（在她的Kiban C研究中）后，PI得出结论，一些著名的生物伦理学家所做的预测，即人类生殖的未来不是通过性，而是通过植入前遗传诊断（PGD），并不一定成立。特别是，从日本的情况来看，斯坦福大学教授亨利·格里利（Henry Greely）关于在未来20-30年内，医疗保健制度良好的国家的大多数人将不再通过传统的方式（即通过性）生育，而是通过胚胎筛查（不仅是遗传性疾病，还包括特殊突变）生育的预测并不成立。日本的案例表明，PGD不会/不会像格里利设想的那样容易;日本拥有最先进的医疗保健系统，但格里利的“简易PGD”在这里并不容易。事实上，日本似乎仍然是那些“棘手”的司法管辖区之一，不符合格里利和其他预言家关于人类即将发生生殖革命的预测。这一发现的一个影响是，目前正在联合国内部建立的全球生殖治理框架不能以Greely等学者提出的前提为基础，而需要准确地反映国际现实，并纳入亚洲的案例。

Having explored empirically (in her Kiban C research) the evolution of the debate on PGT-M in Japan, the PI concluded from it that the prediction made by some prominent bioethicists that the future of human reproduction is not through sex but through Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) does not necessarily hold. In particular, when looking at the Japanese case, the projection of the Stanford University Professor Henry Greely that within the next 20-30 years the majority of people in countries with good healthcare systems will procreate not in the old-fashioned way (namely, through sex), but through embryo screening (not only for heritable diseases but also for ad hoc mutations) does not hold. The Japanese case demonstrates that PGD will not be/is not so easy as Greely envisions; Japan has a most sophisticated healthcare system, and yet Greely’s “Easy PGD” is proving not easy here. Indeed, Japan, for one, seems to remain one of those “tricky” jurisdictions that do not fall in line with predictions by Greely and other prognosticators of an impending reproductive revolution for the human species. One of the implications of this finding is that the global framework for reproductive governance which is currently in construction, with initiatives within the United Nations, cannot be based on the premise drawn by scholars such as Greely and needs to accurately represent the international reality, incorporating cases from Asia as well.