Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models

由于其面积和地理位置，西澳大利亚州遭受严重热带和热带外天气的影响异常高。该项目将利用新出现的高分辨率卫星数据和其他数据，开发增强的数据同化和建模技术，以提高西澳大利亚州天气预报的及时性、准确性和可靠性。 成果包括：改进预报系统，用于预测影响西澳大利亚州（进而影响澳大利亚）的恶劣天气，以及提供有价值的概率信息（如预报的置信限）的集合预报系统。 更早地对恶劣天气事件作出更准确的预报，将有助于采取适当的规划和管理措施，从而减少目前高昂的社会和经济代价。

WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecast systems for predicting severe weather affecting WA (and consequently Australia), and ensemble forecast systems that provide valuable probabilistic information, such as confidence limits in the forecasts. Better forecasts issued earlier for severe weather events will allow appropriate planning and management measures, thereby reducing their present high social and economic cost.