Estimate and Forecast of Social Forces of A Regional Society

多年来，人们一直认为，这是一个地区或地区可以作为经济、文化、政治中心而独立的时代。这应该被理解为地区或地区自己推动的新的自组织现代化的曙光。但事实上，这种被期待的现代化只是对中心城市的模仿，或者是受其强烈影响的无用的东西。在自我现代化的背景下，他们为什么不能确立和实现自己的目标？因此，寻求自我现代化这种自发发展过程的是社会力量。现代化的确一方面使权力政治变成了信息政治，另一方面又使公民投票权利的行使和表面的、丰富多彩的民主泛滥成风，类似于缺乏实质性辩论的政治。这是源自现代个人哲学的错误潮流，我们不应忽视这种哲学在科学方法论上也存在缺陷的事实。当然，现代化总体上是正确的。但是，我们必须纠正这种方法上的错误，以追求我们所要研究的富有成效的社会力量。因此，我们应该把重点放在有影响力的声音，一个社区的意见完全汇聚的过程中，不是单独的，而是联系在一起的许多种组合，考虑到它们的每一个值得尊敬的位置。这些过程就好像光线在聚光棱镜中透射一样。他们是富有成效的社会力量的源泉。换句话说，富有成效的社会力量是非常基本的结构，它将创造行政社区中人们通常的综合能力。这个结构能够自组织吗？我们进行的结构分析是为了统一一种权力结构和一种信息结构，以及一种一般结构的逻辑。分析是为了阐明一个有影响力的人的朋友组成的更大意义上的整个网络的形式是什么，或者“第三人”在网络上的作用是什么。幸运的是，我们得到了他们的慷慨理解，我们在南阳市进行了研究，收集了这两年非常重要的数据。据此对该城市进行了富有成效的社会力量测算和预测，得出结论：该城市总体上可命名为“环城”型，并将在未来几年保持这种状态。我希望开始成长的“激情市民”能够成功。少

The notion that it is an age when regions or districts can be independent as economic, cultural, and political centers has been common for years. This should have been understood as the dawn of the new self organizing modernization that regions or districts promote by themselves. But in fact, this expected kind of modernization is only an imitation of that in the central, big urban cases or something useless strongly influenced by them. Why couldn't they establish and obtain their own goals under the self-modernization ? Thus it is social forces that seek for such a spontaneous development process as self-modernization. Modernization indeed, on the one hand, changed politics of power into politics of information and, on the other hand, provided infestations of the exercise of the referendum right and of superficial and colorful democracy, which are something similar to a politics with a lack of substantive debate. This is the wrong current originated from the philosophy of modern indiv … More isualism, and we should not overlook the fact that this philosophy also includes defects in its scientific methodology.Surely modernization will be generally right. But we must correct this methodological fault to pursue fruitful social forces that we are to study. Accordinglywe should focus the processes that influencial voices, opinions of a community wholly converges, not indivisually but connectedly to many kinds of combinations, considered each respectable position of them. These processes are as if a ray transmits in a condensing prism. They are the sources of fruitful social forces. Put in other words, fruitful social forces are the very basic structures which will create usual aggregated abilities of people in the executive community.Is the structure able to be self-organizing ? The structure analysis we carry out is designed for unifying both a type of power structure and a type of information structure along with the logic of a type of general structure. The analysis is to clarify what the form of the whole network consisting of friends of an influencial person in a larger meaning could be, or what the function which "the third person" had on the network was. Fortunately getting their generous comprehensions for us, we made research in Nanyo city, to collect very important data for these two years. So we executed the estimation and the forecast of fruitful social forces there, and as a result, we reach some conclusions that generally speaking, the city can be named to the "Central Around" type, and will keep this state fornext some years. I hope that "The passionate citizens" which starts to grow up will become succesful. Less