Modeling of the responses of marine living resources to global environmental changes as a basis for the management of fisheries resources

为了在全球气候和海洋环境变化的背景下，为海洋生物资源的合理利用和管理提供生态学依据，分析了黑潮、黑潮-亲潮过渡区、南极洋和白令海浮游生物量、组成、渔获物等的长期变化资料，并结合这些区域的气候和海洋变化进行了分析。这些分析突出了以下主题：1）黑潮、黑潮-亲潮过渡区亲绿体浓度、浮游植物和浮游动物生物量、微型浮游动物群落的长期变化; 2）黑潮区微型浮游生物（如水蚤）生物量和种类组成的长期变化; 3）黑潮沿岸沙丁鱼和鱼种群优势种更替的可能机制;（4）气候和海洋对白令海东部狭鳕幼鱼种群摄食和补充的影响;（5）南极海阿德利企鹅种群动态及冰缘扩张/退缩对种群动态的影响;（6）浮游植物和浮游动物的长期变化对海湾水体富营养化的响应;（7）一些统计和系统方法在预测生态系统变化和为海洋生物资源的合理管理提供依据方面的实用性和适用性。

In order to establish the ecological basis for utilization and proper management of marine living resources in the contex of global climate and ocean environmental changes, exisiting data on the long-term changes in plankton biomass and composition, fisheries catch, etc.were analyzed in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio-Oyashio transitional areas, Antarctic Ocean and Bering Sea with special reference to climate and oceanic changes in these regions. The following topics were highlighted from these analyzes ; 1) long-term changes in chlorophill concentration, phyto-and zooplankton biomass, microzooplankton comunity in the Kuroshio, Kuroshio-Oyashio transitional areas, 2) long-term changes in the biomass and species composition of micronekton such as myctophids in the Kuroshio region, 3) possible mechanisms behind dominant species replacement observed in sardine and anchovy populations in the coastal Kuroshio region, 4) climate and ocean effects on the feeding and recruitment of walleye pollock larval population in the eastern Bering Sea, 5) population dynamics of adelie penguins in the Antarctic Ocean and implications of ice edge expansion/retreat for the dynamics, 6) long-term changes in phyto-and zooplankton in Tokyo Bay responding to the eutrophication of the bay water, 7) utility and applicability of some statistical and systematic methods to predicting ecosystem changes and providing the basis for proper management of marine living resources.