A STUDY ON VALUATION OF PUNCTUALITY OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE

虽然准点性被公认为是一个有用的运输服务指标，但由于其难以分析，目前对准点性评价的研究还很少。本研究的目的是建立一种方法来评估公共交通服务的准时性，通过分析东京站和筑波中心之间的高速公路巴士运行通过常磐高速公路，其中交通时间从筑波到东京的变化比从东京到筑波。（1）通过对高速巴士运营数据的分析，明确了运输时间变化和乘客需求变化的特征;（2）通过对高速巴士的问卷调查，获得了乘客的属性数据和对准时性的评价数据;（3）通过对（1）和（2）结果的分析，研究并提出了评价公共交通服务准时性的指标;（4）利用（3）的结果，构建并估计了考虑准时性的高速巴士与常磐铁道之间的交通方式选择模型，并指出了具有统计可靠性的指标。

Though punctuality is recognized as a useful index of transport service, there are few studies on valuation of punctuality because of difficulty to analyze. The purpose of this study is to establish a method to value punctuality of public transport service by analyzing the Expressway Bus operation between the Tokyo Station and the Tsukuba Center through the Joban Expressway, where transport time from Tsukuba to Tokyo varies so much more than that from Tokyo to Tsukuba. Remarkable results are as follows :(1) by analyzing operation data of the Expressway Bus, the feature of transport time variation and that of passenger demand variation were made clear,(2) by a questionnaire survey on the Expressway Bus, data of passengers' attributes and that of their valuation of punctuality were got,(3) by analyzing results of (1) and (2), some indices to value punctuality of public transport service were investigated and proposed,(4) by using results of (3), some mode choice models (between the Expressway Bus and the Joban Railway) which consider punctuality were constructed and estimated, and some indices which have statistical reliability were pointed out.