New Horizon of Travel Demand Analysis and Its Applications to Creating More Travel Demand

本研究回顾了出行需求分析的最新进展，提出了以老龄化和少儿社会为特征的下一个世纪出行需求分析的新方向。传统的出行需求预测方法只适用于出行需求增长(人口增长和/或经济增长)的情况。这些模式将无法满足新时代的出行需求。出行需求分析应包括以下要素：(1)替代燃料汽车，(2)人们为什么搬家？(=出行需求是什么？)，(3)时间使用，(4)出行行为，(5)动态分析，(6)老龄化社会，(7)信息技术，(8)城市规模，(9)市场营销。其中面板数据分析是本课题的主要研究内容之一。纵向或动态方法将是满足未来几年出行需求的重要手段。

This study reviewed the state-of-the-art in travel demand analysis and proposed the new direction of travel demand analysis for the coming century which is characterized by aged and few-children society. Conventional travel demand forecasting method is only valid for the situation of travel demand increasing (by population growth and/or by economic growth). These models will fail to capture the travel demand for new era. Following elements should be involved in the analysis of travel demand : (1) alternative fuel vehicle, (2) why people move? (=What is travel demand? ), (3) time use, (4) travelbehavior, (5) dynamic analysis, (6)agedsociety, (7) information technology, (8) urban size, and (9) marketing.New approaches are introduced in this study (see project report). One of them, analysis of panel data, is mainly investigated in this project. Longitudinal or dynamic approach will be important for capturing travel demand in coming years.