Research on housing planning related to aging and decreasing of child number society

研究结果如下：东京都市圈房屋拆迁市场的变迁东京都市圈房屋拆迁市场变迁的主要因素是：1）第一次婴儿潮一代的老龄化和第二次婴儿潮一代的出现。2)房屋拆迁比例下降。3)东京23区在房地产市场的相对重要性下降。4)对自有住房的选择比例下降。5)增加郊区的选择比例。除世代因素外，东京都内的房屋拆迁市场的数量也在减少。出生率与居住条件关系的统计分析1）影响出生率的主要因素是结婚时间和家庭收入形式（一份收入或两份收入）。但随着户主年龄的增长，住房因素的影响也在增加。2)在住房因素中，住房年限、住房面积和租金对出生率的影响相对较强。3)与第一胎相比，住房因素对第二胎出生率的影响相对较弱。住房与区位选择行为的选择性在“家庭型家庭”中，当家庭面临土地价格上涨等住房市场条件变化时，家庭倾向于继续居住在当前区域。但是在“年轻的单一类型”的情况下，这种倾向是相当弱的。现有住房存量再分配的模拟作为模拟的结果，只有通过现有住房存量的再分配才有可能非常有效地改善住房条件。

The research result is as follows ;CHARACTERISTIC OF HOUSING RELOCATION MARKET IN TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREAThe main factors of change in housing relocation market in Tokyo metropolitan area are 1) aging of primary baby boom generation and appearance of the second baby boom generation to housing market. 2) decline of housing removal ratio. 3) decline of relative importance of Tokyo 23 wards in housing market. 4) decline of selection ratio to ownership housing. 5) increase of selection ratio to suburban areas. Except for the generation factor, housing the removal market in Tokyo the metropolitan area is going to reduction in quantity.STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RELATION BETWEEN BIRTH RATIO AND HOUSING CONDITION1) The main factors to have influence on birth ratio are elapse time after marriage and family income form (one-income or two-income). But as age of the household head becomes older, the influence of housing factor increases. 2) In housing factor, housing tenure, house size and rent have comparatively strong influence on birth ratio. 3)Compared with in case of the first child, influence of housing factor on the second child birth ratio is rather weak.CHARACTERISTIC OF HOUSING AND LOCATION SELECTION ACTIVITYIn the case of "family type household", there is a tendency that households prefer continuing to live the current district when household face to housing market condition change such as land price increase. But in the case of "young single type", this tendency is rather weak.SIMULATION OF EXISTING HOUSING STOCK REDISTRIBUTIONAs a result of simulation, there is a possibility of improving the housing condition only by existing housing stock redistribution very efficiently.