Studies on development of strong motion prediction and earthquake disaster prediction in Kyoto basin

在本研究中，我们的目的是建立更可靠的京都地区情景地震强地震动方法。我们的研究结果如下：1。地震地震动观测与强震数据库建设：为了获得更详细的地下结构模型，在京都盆地进行了密集地震阵观测。我们还收集了京都地区各站点的地震动记录，并建立了地震动数据库。地下构造模型的建立：为了建立1^<st>版本的盆地模型，我们收集了京都地区的勘探调查结果。在京都盆地东南部进行了微震阵观测，估算了盆地速度结构。特征震源模型：从强震记录和非均匀震源标度出发，讨论了2000年鸟鸟-西武地震和2001年Geiyo地震的断层破裂模型，为未来事件的震源模型特征化提供了依据。4 .地震破坏与地面运动的关系：估算了鸟鸟县西武地震和Geiyo地震中木制房屋的地震破坏。强震预测方法：基于震源特征和地下结构模型，讨论了强震情景模拟的方法。

In this research, our aim is to construct the method for accomplishing more reliable strong ground motion method for the scenario earthquakes in Kyoto area. Our research results are as follows,1. Seismic ground motion observation and strong motion database construction : For getting more detail underground structure model, dense seismic array observation was done in Kyoto basin. We also collected ground motion records at sites in Kyoto area and constructed ground motion data base.2. Construction of underground structure model : For constructing 1^<st> version of the basin model, we collected exploration survey results in Kyoto area. We also conducted microtremor array observation in SE Kyoto basin for estimating basin velocity structure.3. Characterized source model : Fault rupture model of the 2000 Tottoriken-Seibu and the 2001 Geiyo earthquakes from strong motion records and heterogeneous source scaling is discussed for characterizing source model for the future events.4. Relations between earthquake damage and ground motions : Earthquake damage of wooden houses during the Tottoriken Seibu and the Geiyo earthquakes was estimated.5. Strong motion prediction methodology : Based on the characterized source and the underground structure models, the methodology of the strong motion simulation for me scenario earthquake was discussed.