Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Operation under Price Stability after Financial Deregulation

许多放松了对金融部门管制的国家经历了资产价格波动和银行业危机。许多国家几乎在同一时期实现了通货膨胀的降低和稳定。除美国和日本外，大多数国家都采用通货膨胀目标制作为货币政策操作的框架。在通货膨胀目标制下，政策决策的信息披露往往被提倡。即使是没有通胀目标制的国家，最近也开始释放更多的政策信息。货币政策操作理念已经转变。信息披露增强了对未来政策行为的可预测性，被认为是改善宏观经济绩效的重要因素。本研究项目的主要结果如下。(1)美国克服了80年代末90年代初的金融危机，成功地将通货膨胀稳定在较低水平。在这一时期“真实的利率”政策的实施过程中，我们可以发现货币扩张与约束过程的显著不对称性。(2)美国在这一时期推动了信息披露，但其效果好坏参半。(3)从宏观政策组合来看，在1997-98年金融危机之前，日本的货币政策和财政政策并没有同时实施扩张性政策。(4)与民间智库相比，日本银行在宏观经济预测方面似乎具有一定的信息优势。(5)在前瞻性模型中，货币政策规则的不确定性越小，宏观经济表现越好。

Many countries, which had deregulated the financial sectors, experienced the asset price fluctuations and the banking crisis. Many countries achieved lowering and stabilizing inflation, in almost the same periods. Except for the U.S. and Japan, most of those countries have adopted the inflation targeting as the framework for their monetary policy operation. Under the inflation targeting, information disclosure on the policy decision has often been promoted. Even the countries without the inflation targeting have started to release more policy information recently. The philosophy of the monetary policy operation has been transformed. The information disclosure which enhances the forecastability of the future policy actions, is considered to improve the macroeconomic performance. The main findings of this research projects are the followings.(1) The U.S. has overcome the financial crisis in the late 1980s and the early 1990s and succeeded in stabilizing the inflation at low level. We can find the significant asymmetry between the monetary expansion and restraint process in the implementation of the "zero real rate" policy in that period.(2) The information disclosure was promoted in that period in the U.S., but its effects are rather mixed.(3) Looking at the macro policy mix, the Japanese monetary and fiscal policies were not expansionary at the same time until the 1997-98 financial crisis.(4) The Bank of Japan seems to have some information advantages on the macroeconomic forecasts compared with the private think-tanks.(5) The less uncertainty on the monetary policy rules improves the macroeconomic performance in the forward-looking models.