Theoretical Study of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Synchronized Flowering and Reproduction of Trees in Forests

成熟森林中的树木经常表现出间歇性的繁殖。密集的开花和种子生产几年才发生一次，通常在很长的距离内同步进行。我们研究了一个耦合映射模型的动态能量储备的个人，并表明，树木成为同步繁殖时，他们的果实产量是有限的异交花粉。在没有花粉限制的情况下，树木表现出独立的混沌波动。在全球花粉耦合的情况下，树木表现出不同程度的生殖同步。李雅普诺夫指数计算解析盟友完全同步的森林，表明同步繁殖的树木，可以发生，只有当树木花在低（但积极的）水平在一个显着的分数年，导致小的水果集由于短缺的异交花粉。然后，我们研究了一个耦合的地图格与本地花粉交换。动态空间协方差表明，一个强大的同步在整个森林可以发展从相当短的距离花粉交换。然后，我们研究了同步所造成的共同的环境波动，无论是在年生产力或生殖阈值水平。没有花粉耦合，即使在个体间相关的环境波动下，个体间也难以出现正相关。只有在花粉耦合和相关环境波动同时存在的情况下，才能保持较高的正相关性。本文还讨论了具有共同传粉者的不同物种间的生殖同步化，这一结论适用于东南亚热带雨林的同步化。第一篇论文发表在JTB上，第二篇发表在《生态学》上，另一篇提交给了《生态学杂志》。

Trees in mature forests often show intermittent reproduction. Intensive flowering and seed production occur only once in several years, often synchronized over a long distance. We study a coupled map model for the dynamics of energy reserve of individuals, and show that trees become synchronized in reproduction when their fruit production is limited by the availability of outcross pollen. Without pollen limitation, the trees show independent chaotic fluctuation. With global pollen coupling, trees show various degree of reproductive synchronization. Lyapunov exponents are calculated analytic ally for perfectly synchronized forests, demonstrating that synchronized reproduction of trees can occur only if trees flower at low (but positive) levels in a significant fraction of years, resulting in small fruit sets due to the shortage of outcross pollen. We then study a coupled map lattice with local pollen exchange. Dynamic spatial covariance shows that a strong synchronization over the whole forest can develop from rather short range pollen exchange. We then examined the synchronization caused by common environmental fluctuation either in the annual productivity or the reproductive threshold level. Without pollen coupling, positive correlation between individuals are difficult to emerge even under environmental fluctuation correlated between individuals. Positive correlation can be maintained at high level only in the presence of both pollen coupling and correlated environmental fluctuation. We also discuss the reproductive synchronization between different species who share common pollinators, which is applicable to the synchronization in the tropical rain forest in Southeast-Asia. The first paper was printed in JTB, the second in now (in press) in Ecology, and another was submitted to J Ecology.