The assessment and a forecasting model for water quality environments on closing coastal area.

本研究开展了“封闭海岸带水质环境评价与预测模型”，旨在构建能够表达陆海一体的环境评价模型。所得结果总结如下：1。作为陆地区域污染负荷产生/流出模型，首先建立了系统动力学技术。特别是当产生污染负荷的原因关系非常复杂时，或者那些时空因果关系不能用简单的关系表达时，这种方法是非常有效的。为了定量评价陆地荷载对海洋空间的影响，采用了水罐模型并进行了技术构建。将该技术应用于于拉湾，利用生态系统模型进行了环境评价和预测。为了对海洋空间的水质环境进行评价和预测，建立了严格考虑物质循环的新型生态系统模型。将此方法应用于“林库公园”的Utsumi，并证明了其有效性。认为该技术可发展为定量的环境影响评价技术。为了利用目前在大阪湾测量的调查结果建立环境影响评价和预测技术，同时询问各种数据分析技术并使用季节模型显示技术的有效性，阐明了大阪湾环境的变化。针对海陆一体环境影响评价预测模型的考虑方式和技术，提出了具体的建议，并证明了其有效性。此外，本文所得到的结果是可以发展的，他可以发展，并认为它可以有效地用于未来的环境政策等。少

In this research, "The assessment and a forecasting model for water quality environments on closing coastal area", is carried out for the purpose to construct the environment-assessment model which can express land and sea as one-body. The obtained results are summarized as following.1.As a pollution load generating/outflow model in land-area, the technique of using system dynamics first was built. This technique is very effective, when the pollution load generating cause is very intricately related especially, or when those time/spatial causal relationship cannot express by the easy expression of relations.2.In order to perform quantitatively influence evaluation of the land load to ocean space, the tank model was used and technique construction was carried out. This technique was applied to the Yura bay, and environment assessment and prediction using an ecosystem model were carried out..3.In order to perform evaluation and prediction of the water quality environment in ocean space, … More the new ecosystem model which can take strict substance circulation into consideration was built. This was applied to Utsumi of a "Rinkuu-park" and the validity was shown. It is thought that this technique can be developed to the quantitive environmental-impact-assessment technique.4.In order to build the environmental impact assessment and the prediction technique using the results of an investigation currently measured in Osaka Bay, while inquiring about the various techniques of data analysis and showing the validity of the technique using a seasonal model, change of the environment in Osaka Bay was clarified.About the way of considering which receives the environmental impact assessment and forecasting model which made land and sea one-body, and its technique, the concrete proposal was able to be performed and those validity was able to be shown. Further, the result obtained here can develop, he can develop it, and it is thought that it can use effective in a future environmental policy etc. Less