Impact of Trade Liberalization and Deoentralization on Urban and Rural Economies in Indonesia

本文以1995年的区域间社会核算矩阵(IRSAM)为基础，构建了印度尼西亚爪哇、苏门答腊岛等三个区域的区域间可计算一般均衡(IRCGE)模型，考察了贸易自由化和分权对区域经济的影响。通过对1995年关税下降50%的模拟，我们发现，关税下降的直接影响是关税收入的减少和进口商品价格的降低。关税下调通过方程直接影响各地区的实际GRDP。然而，由于关税削减降低了进口商品价格和综合商品价格，附加值价格因成本降低而上升。然后，在行业活动中，出口部门受益，如加瓦的纺织部门，而与进口竞争的部门更有可能遭受损害。因此，Java的实际GRDP比外部Java的GRDP更大。爪哇的地方政府收入略有减少，但政府支出没有变化，因此中央政府的对外借款在增加。关于价格指数，该地区的价格指数正在下降，从-1.16%(其他地区)到-1.38%(爪哇)。另一方面，从对分权政策的模拟中，我们发现分权对GRDP有积极的影响，如表1a和表1b所示。也就是说，非爪哇地区的实际GRDP在增加，非爪哇地区的地方政府收入也在通过分权增加。

In this paper, following the 1995 Interregional Social Accounting Matrix (IRSAM), we constructed an interregional Computable General Equilibrium (IRCGE) Model for three regions of Java, Sumatra and other region in Indonesia, and examined the impacts of the trade liberalization and decentralization on regional economy. From simulation of the tariff reduction by 50% in 1995, we found that the direct effects with the tariff cut are the reduction in tariff revenue and the reduction in the imported goods price. The tariff cut affects the real GRDP in each region directly through equation. However, since tariff cut lowers the imported goods price and the composite goods price, the value-added price is increasing due to cost reduction. Then, in industry activity, exports sectors such as textile sector in Jawa benefit, while import-competing sectors are more likely to suffer damage. Thus, the real GRDP of Java is increasing than in outer-Java. The regional government revenue of Java is slightly decreasing, but government expenditure of Java does not change, thus central government borrowing from abroad is increasing. Regarding the price index, the regional the price index is decreasing ranging from -1.16 % (other region) to -1.38% (Java). On the other hand, from simulations of decentralization policy, we found that decentralization has a positive impact on GRDP in Table la and Table Ib. That is, the real GRDP of outside-Java is increasing, and the regional government revenue of outside-Java is increasing by decentralization.