A New Framework for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis

本课题的主要成果如下：(1)将金融市场不完全性引入动态一般均衡模型，建立了一个经常项目动态模型。推导了模型的解析解，对日本经济在资本市场完善条件下的参数约束进行了检验，这些约束在非常高的显著性水平上被拒绝，得出资本市场不完善在日本经济中起重要作用的结论。(2)利用日本制造业数据检验了主要银行体系的重要性。结果表明，主要银行体系对日本银行业的效率有负向影响。(3)我们扩展了第一代金融危机模型，并表明该模型可以解释独立于经济基本面的软货币的系统性贬值。(4)利用日本劳动力市场的流动数据，我们发现近期失业的流入和流出都在增加，失业的可能性也在上升。(5)分析了长期增长的决定因素。结果表明，存在一个使福利水平最大化的最优专利长度，政府的债务多头影响长期增长率。(6)构建两国两品动态模型，分析财政政策的国际溢出效应。我们推导了一个表达福利效应的精确公式，并利用它表明，一个国家财政扩张的福利效应取决于外国资产头寸和政府支出的构成。

The main results of this project are as follows:(1)Introducing financial market imperfection into the dynamic general equilibrium model, we develop a model of current account dynamics. Deriving analytical solution to the model, we test parameter restrictions under the perfect capital market for the Japanese economy The restrictions are rejected at a very high significance level and we conclude that the capital market imperfection plays an important role in Japan. (2)The importance of the main bank system is tested by using Japanese data on the manufacturing sector. The results indicate that the main bank system has a negative effect on the efficiency of the Japanese banking sector. (3)We extend the first-generation models of financial crises and show that the model can explain systematic devaluations of soft currencies that are independent of the fundamentals of an economy. (4)Using the Japanese flow data on the labor market, we show that the recent inflows and outflow to unemployment are both increasing and that the possibility of unemployment is also rising. (5)The determinants of long-run growth are analyzed. It is shown that there is an optimal patent length to maximize the welfare level and that the debt poly of the government affects the long-run growth rate. (6)Constructing a two-country two goods dynamic model, we analyze the international spillover effects of fiscal policy. We derive an exact formula expressing the welfare effect, and by use of it we show that the welfare effect of a country's fiscal expansion depends on the foreign asset position and on the composition of the government spending.