Construction of Model on Measuring Effects of Airline Deregulation Using a Real-Option-Method

1986年6月，日本民用航空的放松管制开始于1970年和1972年计划的终止，该计划决定了该国航空公司的业务领域。1996年实行以标准成本为最高限额的机票价格制度后，修订后的《民用航空法》于2000年2月实施，取消供应-本研究旨在建立一个评估模型，为了在民航管制放松的背景下，将民航服务引入到现有主要航空公司极有可能成为无利可图的航线领域，以支线航线为重点，采用真实的期权方法，研究得出以下结论：1）民航管制放松后，航空公司有根据客座率改变座位数的趋势。实际上，即使是客座率低于盈亏平衡点的航线，也是根据需求的变动来决定航线的维持或减少。2）建立了航空公司放松管制的效果衡量模型，基于真实的期权方法，将民航服务引入现有主要航空公司极有可能成为无利可图的航线，在民航放松管制的情况下，

Japan's civil aviation deregulation began with the termination of the 1970 & 1972 scheme, which determined the business fields of the nation's airline companies, in June 1986. After the introduction of the air fare system in which the standard cost was set as the maximum amount in 1996, the revised Civil Aviation Law was enforced in February 2000, abolishing supply-demand adjustment regulations on the premise of security and providing airline companies with the freedom of divesting from routes as well as the freedom of setting fares.This research aims to establish an evaluation model based on the real option method in order to introduce civil aviation services into areas that are highly likely to become unprofitable routes for existing major airline companies by focusing on regional airline routes amid civil aviation deregulation.This research has led to the following conclusion :1)After deregulation, airline companies have had a tendency to change the number of seats available according to the load factor. In fact, even for routes whose load factor was below the break-even point, decisions as to whether routes would be maintained or reduced were made on the basis of demand fluctuations.2)Model on Measuring Effects of Airline Deregulation was established, based on the real option method in order to introduce civil aviation services into areas that are highly 1ikely to become unprofitable routes for existing major airline companies by focusing on regional airline routes amid civil aviation deregulation.