Discouraged Borrowers in Japan

这项研究的目的是探讨受挫借款人在信贷市场上的行为，以及非银行机构在填补日本受挫借款人所面临的融资缺口方面所扮演的角色，尤其是放债人(柏金桥)。我们使用Kon-Storey模型作为一个分析框架来研究银行信贷和非银行贷款之间的关系。首先，我们回顾了Kon-Storey之后的最新研究，发现了概念性的发展，如“准入问题”(Beck-de la Torre)，其中包括将借款人的气馁视为“自我排斥”。其次，我们对原来的Kon-Storey模型进行了修正，以更准确地描述在贷款申请成本在潜在借款人之间均匀分布的简化假设下，货币贷款人市场变量(利率和均衡提供的贷款)如何对几个参数的变化做出反应。我们发现，放债人贷款的变化与银行信贷的变化是相反的(即。可替代性)。第三，我们构建了一个关于柏金桥的数据集，发现近年来日本的货币贷款者贷款变化率与银行信贷变动率呈负相关，这与理论预测是一致的。

The purpose of this study is to explore the behavior of the discouraged borrowers in credit markets and to examine the role of non-banks, especially that of money lenders (Kashikin-gyo) to fill the finance gap facing the discouraged borrowers in Japan. We employ the Kon-Storey model as an analytical framework to investigate the relationships between bank credit and non-bank loan to risky borrowers. Firstly, we reviewed the recent research following Kon-Storey to find conceptual development such as the "problem of access" (Beck-de la Torre) which includes discouragement of borrowers as "self-exclusion". Secondly, we have modified the original Kon-Storey model to show more precisely how money lender market variables (interest rate and loan supplied at equilibrium)respond to several parameter changes under the simplified assumption of uniformly distributed loan application cost among potential borrowers. We have found that the money lender loan changes oppositely to the bank credit change (ie. substitutability). Thirdly, we have built a dataset on Kashikin-gyo and have found that the rates of money lender loan change are negatively correlated with the rate of bank credit change in recent years in Japan, which is consistent with the theoretical prediction.