SIMULATION MODEL FOR FORECASTING PATH FLOWS AND TRAVEL TIMES USING PROBE DATA

为了掌握在东海-北ku高速公路MINAMI立交和东海高速公路OKAZAKI立交之间的高速公路上行驶的车辆的运动，其中有3条路线，通过每辆测试车上的GPS接收器记录1秒内的车辆位置（经纬度）。同时，测试车辆仪表盘上的数字摄像机记录了交通状况。在这次浮动调查中，三辆测试车同时启动，并在不同的路线上运行。试验飞行器每隔15分钟启动一次。此外，为了观察所有车辆在不同路线上的行驶时间，采用高分辨率数码摄像机记录了在6个点，南南立交下游，中央高速公路，东海- kanjyo高速公路，名古屋立交上下游，冈崎立交上游的每辆车的车牌号。将记录的GPS数据用GIS进行表达，从而描绘出车辆的时空运动。通过车牌调查，得到了各条路线的行车时间变化情况。从根本上分析了这些车辆的运动、行驶时间和交通次数，建立了动态交通条件与路线改变行为之间的关系。利用从调查中获得的车辆运动数据和交通计数进行交通模拟。仿真模型准确地估计了换乘间的通行时间。通过建立的仿真模型，阐明了改道可以缓解交通拥堵，防止出行时间的增加。

In order to grasp movements of a vehicle running the expressway between MINAMI interchange on TOKAI-HOKURIKU expressway and OKAZAKI interchange on TOMEI expressway, in which 3 routes exist, vehicle locations (latitude and longitude) by 1 second were recorded by a GPS receiver on each test vehicle. Simultaneously, traffic condition was recorded by a digital video camera set on the dashboard of the test vehicle. In this floating investigation, three test vehicles started at the same time and ran on a different route. The test vehicle started 15 minute interval. Moreover, in order to observe travel times of all vehicle running on the different routes, high resolution digital video cameras were used to record the number plate of each vehicle at 6 points, downstream of MINAMI interchange, on CHUO expressway, on TOKAI-KANJYO expressway, upstream and downstream of NAGOYA interchange, and upstream OKAZAKI interchange. The recorded GPS data were expressed by GIS so that spatial and temporal vehicle movements were depicted. The time variations of travel times on each route were also obtained form number plate survey. These vehicle movements, travel times and traffic counts were analyzed fundamentally so that the relationship between dynamic traffic conditions and route change behavior was established. Traffic simulation was developed by using these vehicle movement data obtained from the survey and the traffic counts. The simulation model estimates travel times accurately between interchanges. It was clarified that route change relieves traffic congestion and prevents increase of travel times with the developed simulation model.