Parameterisierung hydrologischer Variabilität und Extreme und Untersuchung ihres Einflusses auf politische Konflikte bzw. internationale Zusammenarbeit der Anrainerstaaten in den 261 internationalen Flussgebieten der Erde.

随着世界范围内水资源需求的不断增长，水资源管理的国际合作已成为一个重要的问题。关于跨界河流的水的争端或合作的程度往往被归因于不可预测的水文条件，如缺水、水灾和干旱的发生。然而，关于这一关系的系统分析还很少。俄勒冈州立大学Aaron Wolf教授和他的团队建立了一个基于地理信息系统的数据库，其中包含关于水的冲突或合作的条约和强度编码事件，为研究水文条件和与水有关的政治冲突与合作之间的联系提供了一个独特的机会。由于现有的地理数据库包括全球所有261个国际河流流域从1948年到2000年的历史水文政治数据，它最适合得出关于水文条件的作用和水文政治变化的一般理论。拟议的研究将开发流量和降雨量得出的水文参数，这些参数描述了变异性、极端事件和随时间的变化，因为它们对人类的感知很重要。使用统计方法，这些参数将在国际基础的全球数据集内检验它们对国际关系的影响。对某些参数具有积极或消极影响的流域的环境和社会经济状况进行分析，将有助于推断水资源管理、规划和政治行动的宝贵信息。

With the rising water demand worldwide, international cooperation in the water resources management has become an important issue. The degree of dispute or cooperation over water from transboundary rivers is often attributed to unfoavorable hydrologic conditions such as water scarcity of the occurrence of floods and droughts. However, few systematic analyses on this relationship have been carried out. A GIS based database with treaties and intensity-coded events of conflict or cooperation over water, set up by Prof. Dr. Aaron Wolf and his team at Oregon State University, provides a unique opportunity to study the link between hydrologic conditions and water related political conflict and cooperation. As the existing geographic database includes historic hydro-political data from 1948 to 2000 for all 261 international river basins worldwide, it is most suited to derive general theories on the role of hydrologic conditions and changes in hydro-politics. The proposed study will develop discharge and precipitation derived hydrologic parameters, which describe the variability, extreme events and changes over time as they are important to human perception. Using statistical methods, these parameters will be tested for their influence on the international relations within the global dataset of international basis. An analysis of the environmental and socio-economic conditions of basins for which certain parameters have a positive or negative influence will allow deducting valuable information for water resources management planning and political action.