Development of an Integrated Travel Demand Forecasting Model for Consensus Building

本研究提出了一个综合出行需求预测模型，用于制定综合交通运输战略，并验证了其作为建立共识的实用工具的实用性。为了克服和修正传统预测模型的不足，提出了一种包含活动-出行模型的半动态组合网络均衡模型。从一个实际的城市区域的应用结果来看，该模型在再现性和计算效率两方面都是有用的。在此基础上，我们对停车押金制度（PDS）和轻轨交通（LRT）进行了评价，前者可以提高公众对道路收费的接受度，后者可能有助于城市中心的活力。

This study proposes an integrated travel demand forecasting model for a formulation of comprehensive transport strategy and validates its usefulness as a practical tool for consensus building. In order to overcome and/or modify some drawbacks of conventional forecasting model, we develop a semi-dynamic combined network equilibrium model including an activity-travel model. From the application results of an actual metropolitan area, it was demonstrated that our model is useful from the both of reproducibility and computational efficiency. After that, we evaluate PDS (parking deposit system) which proposed to improve public acceptance of road pricing, and LRT (light rail transit) which might be contributed to the vitalization in city center.