Protest movements in transition from insurgencies to consolidated rebel rule: The AFPRO-dataset

该项目旨在研究从叛乱向统一的叛军统治的过渡如何改变抗议运动的机会结构。该项目以阿富汗为例回答了这个问题，阿富汗是为数不多的几个成功的反叛运动之一。研究问题是：叛军的成功如何改变抗议运动的机会结构？该项目将通过一个关于喀布尔落入塔利班之手前后抗议事件的新数据库来回答这一问题。在两个子项目中，回答了互补的问题。在第一个分项目中，这些项目包括：抗议运动在叛军控制的领土上如何行动？他们的地址是谁？他们有多成功？在政权更迭后，他们是如何适应的？根据现有的研究，预计将把重点放在分散的地方抗议活动上，以解决叛军问题。成功的运动可能会在以后支持新兴的叛军治理。第二个分项目旨在回答：抗议运动在国家控制的领土上是如何行动的？他们的地址是谁？他们有多成功？在政权更迭后，他们是如何适应的？现有的研究突出了国际社会和集中、公开的抗议形式。政权更迭后，他们有可能在全国范围内举行抗议活动，但也更容易受到镇压。通过比较叛军控制的领土和国家控制的领土的轨迹，该项目可以区分机会结构。该项目是对叛军治理研究中现有方法的补充，侧重于过渡时期后抗议战略的长期发展，并解决关于冲突结束后政治变革的社会动态的问题。现有的关于叛军治理的研究可以解释内战期间的抗议行为，以及叛军取得成功后治理做法的转变，但对于抗议运动在冲突解决后的行为，几乎没有深入的见解。该项目旨在研究叛军成功后的战略。因此，它有助于叛军治理研究中最近的发展，这些研究旨在将其概念化为一种历史和社会根源的现象。

This project aims to research how the transition from insurgency to consolidated rebel governance changes opportunity structures for protest movements. The project answers this question using Afghanistan as a case study for one of the few successful rebel movements. The research question is: How does rebel success change opportunity structures for protest movements? The project will answer this through a new database on protest events before and after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. In two subprojects, complementary questions are answered. In the first subproject, these include: How did protest movements act in rebel-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt following regime change? Based on existing research, a focus on decentralized, local protests addressing rebels is expected. Successful movements are likely to later support emerging rebel governance. The second subproject aims to answer: How did protest movements act in state-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt after regime change? Existing research highlights the international community and centralized, public forms of protest. Post-regime change, they have the potential for nationwide protests, but are also more exposed to repression. Comparing trajectories of rebel-held and state-held territory allows the project to differentiate opportunity structures. The project complements existing approaches within rebel governance research by focussing on long-term developments of protest strategies after transition periods and addresses questions about social dynamics of political transformations after the end of conflicts. Existing research on rebel governance can explain protest behavior during civil war, and transformations of governances practices once rebels become successful, but there are few insights into how protest movements act after conflict is resolved. This project aims to research their strategies after rebel success. It thus contributes to recent developments within rebel governance research, which aim to conceptualize it as a historically and socially rooted phenomenon.