Energy Demand Model Development Procedure for Commercial and Residential Sector Considering Accuracy Assurance

本研究提出了一种开发住宅或商业建筑存量能源需求模型的程序。在此过程中，首先进行参数筛选，以选择对建筑物能源使用有重大影响的建筑物属性。然后根据筛选中指定的参数将建筑材料分类为建筑材料类别。然后，设计了一个代表建筑存量类别的建筑模型。该模型用作输入数据集，用于模拟量化每个建筑存量类别的单位建筑面积或家庭能耗。最后，对各类建筑材料的预测能耗进行汇总，得出总能耗。在本研究中，通过几个案例研究来评估该程序如何确保模拟结果的准确性，这些案例研究将该程序应用于从地区，城市到国家的几个空间尺度的住宅或商业建筑存量。

This research proposes a procedure to develop an energy demand model of a residential or commercial building stock. In this procedure, first, a parameter screening is carried out to select building properties that have a significant influence on the energy use of buildings. Then the building stock is classified into building stock categories according to the parameters specified in the screening. Then, a building model each representing a building stock category is designed. This model is used as input dataset to perform simulations for quantifying the energy consumption per unit floor area or household in each building stock category. Finally, the total energy consumption is aggregated by summing up the predicted energy consumption of all the building stock categories. In this research, it is evaluated how this procedure assures the accuracy of the simulation result through several case studies in which this procedure was applied to residential or commercial building stock at several spatial scale from district, city to nation.