Effects of involvement and affection of communication including numerical risk information on the attitudes change

本研究的目的是评估日本公民的计算能力水平，探讨这些水平与各种任务的判断之间的关系，并检查对现实生活中的概率预测的判断。2012年，对包括东京在内的关东地区的市民进行了互联网调查。所有参与者（n = 5553）都回答了Lipkus等人的问题。S（2001）计算量表。调查结束后，对来自调查的分层样本（n =960）按年龄、教育程度和计算能力水平进行了实验。参与者提供了他们的判断和几个任务的决定。结果表明，计算能力的中位数为10分，性别，年龄和教育水平有显着差异。许多错误是在现实世界中发现的。低计算能力的参与者在现实世界的任务（彩票问题）中表现出更高的决策偏差。然而，在其他问题（例如，Tversky & Kahnemans [1981] Asian disease problem），偏倚是常见的。两个层次的参与者都对发布概率地震预报持积极态度。然而，当预测值改变，概率降低时，低计算能力的参与者的恐惧显着增加，而高计算能力的参与者的恐惧减少。这一结果表明，算术教育是非常重要的风险沟通。

The purpose of the study is to assess Japanese citizens’ numeracy levels, to explore the relationships between those levels and judgments for various tasks, and to examine judgments toward real-life probabilistic forecasts. An Internet survey was administered to citizens in the Kanto area including Tokyo in 2012. All the participants (n = 5553) answered Lipkus et al.’s (2001) numeracy scale. After the survey the experiment was conducted for the stratified samples that were from the survey (n =960) by age, education, and numeracy levels. Participants provided their judgments and decisions for several tasks. The results showed that the median of the numeracy scores were 10 out of 11, with significant differences in gender, age, and education levels. The many errors were found in real-world Items. Low-numeracy participants showed significantly higher decision biases in real-world tasks (the lottery problem). Yet, in other problems (e.g., Tversky & Kahnemans’ [1981] Asian disease problem), the biases were common. Both levels of participants showed positive attitudes toward issuing probabilistic earthquake forecasts. When the forecast values were changed and the probability decreased, however, fear increased significantly for low-numeracy participants, in contrast to the high- participants, whose fear decreased. This result indicates that numeracy education is highly important for risk communication.