A study for residual stability and strength for the safe return to port

首先，应用基于模型试验的物理模型，建立了拖航过程中破损船舶波浪载荷的估算方法，其次，建立了考虑船体结构失效概率的倾覆概率数学模型。在本研究中，将极限强度假设为结构失效的门槛值，最后将这些概率组合起来，得到倾覆与失效的条件概率。并对这些概率进行级数计算，找出综合评价中的主导概率。

Firstly, by applying a physical model which is based on the model test, a estimation method for wave loads of the damaged ship under towing is developed.Secondly, mathmatical model for probability of capsizing that takes the probability of structural failure of ship hull is also developed. In this study, ultimate strength is assumed as a threshold value for a structural failure.Finally, by the combination of those probability, conditional probability of capsizing and failure was developed. Furthermore, series computation of those probability was carried out to find the dominant probability in the comprehensive assessment.