A Causality Analysis of Structural Transformation and Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries

我们对东亚和拉丁美洲国家的分析结果表明，农业劳动份额的变化一般先于农业劳动生产率的变化。这表明劳动力从农业部门转移出来，导致了农业生产率的增长。对农业劳动生产率的因子分析表明，在低收入阶段，“收入效应”的贡献较大，而“相对价格效应”的贡献随着收入水平的提高而变得相对较大。

The results of our analysis for East Asian and Latin American countries show that the change of labor share in agriculture generally precedes the change of labor productivity in agriculture. This suggests that the labor migration out of agricultural sector causes the productivity growth in agriculture. Further, we found that the above conclusion is strengthened in the case that the labor share in agriculture and that the non-agricultural labor productivity is controlled.The factor analysis of agricultural labor ratio showed that the contribution of the "income effect" is larger at the stage of low-income level, while the contribution of the "relative price effect" become relatively larger and larger with the income levels.