Research on Healthcare Planning and Assessment by using Social simulation methodologies

在这项研究中，包括微观模拟建模和系统动力学在内的社会模拟方法被用来预测日本超高龄化的健康和福利护理需求。本研究的主要目的是探讨卫生保健制度设计以适应快速变化的卫生福利服务需求。在日本的微观模拟建模结果显示了日本详细的预测需求，并在此基础上构建了数据库。对医疗福利政策评估的模拟结果表明，预测长期趋势和捕捉供需缺口的能力具有重要意义。

In this study, Social simulation methodologies including Microsimulation modeling and System Dynamics were used for projecting health and welfare care demand in super aging Japan. Investigation on health care system design to adjust the rapid change of health and welfare care demand was main purpose of this study. The result of microsimulation modeling in Japan showed detailed projected demands in Japan and database was constructed based on the result. And result of simulation for health and welfare care policy assessment showed the importance of projecting view on long term trend and capability of catching gap between supply and demand.