中国東莞都市圏における都市化プロセスと持続的発展：　シナリオ分析

土地利用/覆被变化是量化生态系统服务价值的一个代用指标。本研究考察了基于土地利用/覆盖变化的生态系统服务价值，并举例说明了对中国快速城市化的东莞市可持续发展的影响。从1994年到2015年，生态系统服务价值总量下降了618.98 × 106元。1994年，人类与生态系统服务价值（H-ESV）之比约为1：1404（元/年），但在2005年降至1：572左右，2015年降至1：428。在自然情景下，到2030年，生态系统服务价值将下降到506.66 × 106元，H-ESV比为1：401。在生态保护情景下，到2030年，生态系统服务价值将下降到306.25 × 106元，H-ESV比为1：403。城市人口的快速增长影响了H-ESV比率。城市与ESV（U-ESV）的比率从1994-2005年的1.60变化到2005-2015年的2.20。这表明，1994-2005年期间，生态系统服务价值的下降主要受到城市扩张的影响。在2015- 2030年自发情景期间，U-ESV比率为1.59，在2015- 2030年生态保护情景期间为1.71。然而，在2015-自发情景2030期间，总生态系统服务价值的下降将受到城市扩张以及其他非城市景观变化的影响。

Land use/cover change is a proxy for quantifying ecosystem service values. This study examined ecosystem service values based on land use/cover changes and exemplified the implications for sustainability in the rapidly urbanizing city of Dongguan, China.From 1994 to 2015, the decline of the total ecosystem service values was 618.98 × 106 Yuan. In 1994, the human to ecosystem service value (H-ESV) ratio was about 1:1404 (Yuan/Year), but it decreased to around 1:572 in 2005 and 1:428 in 2015. Additionally, the ecosystem service values will decline to about 506.66 × 106 Yuan in 2030 under the Spontaneous Scenario and will have anH-ESV ratio of 1:401. Under the Ecological Protection Scenario, the ecosystem service values will decline to about 306.25 × 106 Yuan in 2030 and will have an H-ESV ratio of 1:403. The rapidly increasing city population influences the H-ESV ratio.The urban to ESV (U-ESV) ratio changed from 1.60 in the 1994-2005 period to 2.20 in the 2005-2015 period. This indicates that the decline in ecosystem service values was affected mainly by urban expansion during the period 1994-2005. The U-ESV ratio will be 1.59 during the period 2015-Spontaneous Scenario 2030 and 1.71 during the period 2015-Ecological Protection Scenario 2030. However, during the period 2015-Spontaneous Scenario 2030, the decline of total ecosystem service values will be affected by urban expansion as well as by other non-urban landscape changes.