Quantitative reconstructions of past land cover change - A basis for evaluating consequences of Global change for vegetation

人们普遍认为，地球气候正在变暖，现在重要的是评估其对物种分布和生物多样性的影响。过去植被变化的定量重建提供了对植被变化驱动因素的独特洞察，并允许测试可用于预测未来情景的模型。该项目的主要目标是(1)改进和应用定量植被重建的创新方法；(2)分析和综合欧洲各地的花粉数据，特别是德国的花粉数据，以便对过去植被变化的驱动因素找到新的见解。该项目还将通过比较花粉百分比和花粉累积率与植物生物量，得出新的花粉生产力估计，这是定量重建的先决条件。植被复盖的定量重建将在整个欧洲进行，并在德国选定的地点进行详细重建。这些重建将与过去使用大气环流模型的气候情景运行的动态植被模型LPG-Guess的结果进行比较。花粉数据将被汇编成过去的丰度图，并对选定的广布物种的种群动态进行分析。该项目的成果将提高我们预测物种分布和生物多样性变化的能力，这些变化对森林管理和自然保护非常重要。

It is generally accepted, that Earth’s climate is warming and it is now important to evaluate the consequences for species distribution and biodiversity. Quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation change give unique insight into the drivers of vegetation change and allow the testing of models that can be used to predict future scenarios. The project main aims are (1) to improve and apply innovative methods of quantitative vegetation reconstruction and (2) to analyse and synthesise pollen data across Europe with a special focus on Germany, in order to find new insight into drivers of past vegetation change. The project will also produce new pollen productivity estimates, which are a prerequisite for quantitative reconstructions, through comparisons of pollen percentages as well as pollen accumulation rates to plant biomass. Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation cover shall be carried out across Europe and in detail on selected sites in Germany. These reconstructions will serve as comparisons for the results of the dynamic vegetation model LPG-GUESS run for the past using climate scenarios from atmospheric general circulation models. Pollen data will be compiled into maps of past abundance and analysed for population dynamics of selected wide spread species. Results of this project will improve our ability to forecast changes in species distributions and biodiversity which are important for forest management and nature conservation.