Scenarios of the Global Water System

全球水系统的物理、化学和生物特征以及人类方面正在发生重大变化。目前在系统中发生的变化提出了关键的科学问题：这些变化是否会在未来几十年内以目前的速度和强度继续下去？如果是这样，它们会对自然和社会产生什么影响？研究人员已经开始通过越来越多的综合情景研究来解决这些问题，这些研究从大陆和全球的角度审视水资源的未来趋势。这个为期一年的项目的第一个目标是审查和评估现有的全球水情景，以便提取重要的科学见解，确定差距和缺点，并推导出开发新一代全球水情景的科学程序。第二个目标是利用现有模型进行模型实验，为非洲产生新的大陆尺度的水情景，解决目前全球水情景的一些不足。新的情景将推进以前的大陆/全球情景，同时考虑到不断变化的土地利用、气候和社会经济因素对未来用水和水供应的影响。之所以选择非洲作为这些模式实验的个案研究，是因为非洲的淡水系统正在经历特别重大的变化。为了确保考虑到发展中国家的信息和观点，首席研究员建议在12个月的项目中花7个月的时间在南非的Stellenbosch大学（居住在这所大学将提供诸如进入非洲水研究人员网络的优势）。对于德国研究界，特别是研究国际和全球规模科学问题的科学家来说，与发展中国家的科学界建立更牢固的联系是至关重要的。该项目将为地球系统科学伙伴关系的全球水系统项目以及由联合国水相关组织组成的一个财团正在编写的《世界水发展报告》提供直接的科学投入。这是Antragssteller担任共同主席的全球水系统项目框架内的eigenständiges项目。预计各种情景的评价将对预测全球水系统的未来变化作出重大贡献。

The global water system is undergoing significant changes in its physical, chemical and biological characteristics, as well as in its human dimensions. The transformations currently taking place in the system raise key scientific questions: Will these changes continue at their current pace and intensity over the coming decades? If so, what impact will they have on nature and society? Researchers have begun addressing these questions through a growing number of comprehensive scenario studies that examine future trends in water resources from the continental and global perspectives. The first objective of this one year project is to review and appraise the existing body of global water scenarios in order to extract out important scientific insights, identify gaps and shortcomings, and derive scientific procedures for developing a new generation of global water scenarios. The second objective is to carry-out model experiments with an existing model to produce new continental scale water scenarios for Africa that address some of the deficits of current global water scenarios. The new scenarios will advance previous continental/global scenarios by simultaneously taking into account the effect of changing land use, climate and socioeconomic factors on future water use and water availability. Africa is selected as a case study for these model experiments because of the particularly significant changes it is experiencing in its freshwater system. To ensure that the information and perspectives of developing countries are taken into account, the principal investigator proposes to spend 7 months out of the 12-month project at the University of Stellenbosch in South Africa (residing at this university will provide advantages such as access to a network of African water researchers). It is critical for the German research community, especially researchers working on international and global-scale scientific problems, to develop stronger ties with the scientific community in developing countries. This project will provide direct scientific input to the Global Water System Project of the Earth System Science Partnership, as well as the World Water Development Report being prepared by a consortium of UN water-related organizations. This is an eigenständiges Projekt within the framework of the Global Water System Project of which the Antragssteller is Co-Chairman. It is expected that the evaluation of scenarios will make a major contribution to anticipating future changes in the global water system.