Dynamic Simulation Analysis of the Optimal Environmental Value-added Tax

基于价值流规律和物质平衡规律，建立了一个非线性双投入产出生态系统模型。在模型中明确构建了生产活动和消费活动共同产生的污染物排放结构。以1997年日本经济数据为模型，模拟了排放税的政策处方，该政策处方不仅完全控制了全球变暖的主要原因CO2的排放，而且还控制了NOx和SOx等主要空气污染物的排放。通过模拟不同情况下的策略集，验证了模型的有效性。这个模拟假设了法律和审计系统的可执行性，即每个生产者都必须在准排放许可市场上购买排放配额。在模拟中，权威机构发布的排放配额总量等于污染物的上限约束总量。通过仿真，得到了准市场环境下的排放许可价格。其他政策变数是对工业减排活动的补贴。事实证明，补贴几乎可以通过出售排放配额来弥补。然而，它也表明，日本政府几乎不可能明确2008-2012年的目标，她在1997年的京都议定书中承诺实现自己，除非在污染物减排行业实现急剧和快速的技术进步。此外，该模型可用于模拟甲烷、氟利昂（氯氟烃）等人为气体与CO2、SOx和NOx的综合联合管理效果，以及模拟一套新替代能源政策的效果。我们开发了该模型，并将其应用于霞浦湖和日本海的水质氮、磷、COD的模拟，验证了模型的适应性和有效性。

We formulate a Non-linear Dual Input-output Ecosystem Model based on the Laws of the Value Flow and Material Balance. We build in the model explicitly the emission structure of pollutants jointly made by the production and consumption activities. Specifying the model with the data of the Japanese economy in 1997, we simulate a policy prescription of emission taxes, which totally controls not only the emission of CO2, a main cause of the global warming, but also major air pollutants of NOx and SOx. We have verified effectiveness of the model by simulating a policy set of different cases. The simulation assumes implementability of a law and an audit system that every producers have to buy emission quotas in the quasi-markets of emission permits. The total amount of emission quotas issued by an authority is to be equated with the total upper-constrained amount of pollutants in the simulation. The prices of the emission permits, which would be realized in quasi-markets, are obtained by the simulation. Other policy variables are subsidies on the abatement activities of the industries. It has been shown that the subsidy can be almost covered by the sale of the emission quotas. However, it is also shown that it is almost impossible for the Japanese Government to clear the target in 2008-2012 which she has committed herself to attain in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 unless a drastic and rapid technological progress would be realized in the pollutants abatement industries. Furthermore, it is shown that the model is useful to simulate effects of the synthesized combined management of anthropogenic gas of methane, freon(chlorofluorocarbon), etc., with CO2, SOx, and NOx, as well as to simulate effects of a policy set of new alternative energies.We have developed the model, and applied it to the simulation of water quality in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and COD in Lake Kasumigaura and Japan Sea to prove adaptability and effectiveness of the model.