BELIEVE – Building Enhanced financial resiLience by Integrating Environmental Variability into Economic dispatch

当前，世界正在经历能源战略转型。大量资金正以债务融资、风险投资、私募股权投资以及保险费和养老基金投资的方式投入可再生能源技术。在金融市场参与者追逐有利可图的机会的同时，风险也很高。特别是，资产表现的潜在可变性对那些规划定价策略、定价金融风险、监测财务风险或评估潜在未来投资吸引力的人提出了重大挑战。因此，健全的电力市场模型对金融服务和能源运营商都具有重要价值。一个常见的需求是需要了解资产或资产组合在不同的未来时间框架内的表现。BELIEVE项目将在一系列与业务相关的时间框架内，为发电资产的未来运营和财务绩效提供改进的战略洞察。我们将通过增强对发电资产未来回报的建模能力（“经济调度”）来实现这一目标。在BELIEVE项目的背景下，“经济调度”意味着能源系统市场动态的建模。金融服务机构需要这种能力来探索未来的创收潜力，从而对个人资产或资产组合进行估值。这种洞察力需要在几个月到几十年的时间范围内进行。这与“运营调度”形成对比，后者是关于每小时或次小时的决策，主要是资产运营商关心的问题。目前的经济调度技术往往忽视了可变可再生能源（主要是风能和太阳能）日益普及所带来的挑战。通过BELIEVE项目，我们的目标是通过纳入天气变化对当前和未来气候的影响，丰富传统的经济调度模型。我们将展示这种增强的建模能力在可变可再生能源发电比例不断增加的市场中的效用。其结果将是一种高度创新和强大的建模能力，代表了一种更全面的资产估值方法，有可能为金融服务参与者提供重要的额外见解。BELIEVE将由环境分析研究所领导，该研究所是雷丁大学应用天气和气候分析的领先中心。

The world is currently undergoing a strategic energy transition. Huge amounts of capital are being committed to renewable energy technologies in the way of debt funding, Venture Capital and Private Equity investment as well as insurance premiums and pension fund investments.Whilst financial market actors chase lucrative opportunities, the risks are also high. In particular, the potential for variability in asset performance presents significant challenges for those planning pricing strategies, pricing financial risk, monitoring financial exposures or assessing the attractiveness of potential future investments. Sound electricity market modelling is thus of significant value for financial services as well as energy operators.A common requirement is the need to understand how assets, or portfolios of assets, will perform over different future timeframes. The BELIEVE project will provide improved strategic insight on the future operational and financial performance of electricity generation assets across a range of business-relevant timeframes. We will do this through an enhanced capability to model future returns from generation assets ('economic dispatch').In the context of the BELIEVE project, 'economic dispatch' means the modelling of the market dynamics of energy systems. This capability is required by financial services organisations to explore the future revenue generation potential, and hence the valuation of, individual assets or portfolios of assets. This insight is required over a range of timeframes from months to decades. This contrasts with 'operational dispatch', which is about hourly or sub-hourly decision-making and is primarily the concern of asset operators.The current state of the art in economic dispatch tends to neglect the challenges posed by the increased penetration of variable renewable energy (primarily wind and solar). Through the BELIEVE project our aim is to enrich traditional economic dispatch modelling by incorporating the effects of weather variability, in both the present and future climates. We will demonstrate the utility of this enhanced modelling capability in markets with increasing proportions of variable renewable generation.The result will be a highly innovative and powerful modelling capability that represents a more comprehensive methodology for asset valuations, with the potential to provide significant additional insight for financial services actors.BELIEVE will be led by the Institute for Environmental Analytics, a leading centre for applied weather and climate analytics at the University of Reading.