Financial Risk Analysis for Climate and the Environment (FRACE)

气候与环境金融风险分析（FRACE）将环境和气候风险分析嵌入到房地产投资者的金融决策中。房地产投资，无论是直接投资还是间接投资，都是金融业的基石之一。在投资房地产时，气候和环境风险扮演着越来越重要的角色。例如：*业主为达到环境标准而对建筑结构进行改造的成本*业主为达到环境标准而对能源进行改造的成本*不同建筑和能源策略对开发商的比较成本*租户的长期成本，即维护成本、能源成本和税收的总和。这是一个复杂的市场和复杂的决策空间。成本和风险压力可以通过直接税、间接税、立法和新的合规措施来体现，也可以通过市场情绪的较软措施来体现，而市场情绪又可以通过租金和转售收入来体现。因此，当前和未来房地产投资的回报高度依赖于政府政策、市场表现、技术创新以及最终的终端用户情绪。FRACE通过使用先进的会计技术将这些风险建模为未来预计资产价值的折扣，从而解决了这一挑战。这种方法将软合格的环境风险转化为对公司资产负债表和未来项目收入和成本的难以衡量的影响。FRACE模型有三个四个方面：工程、建筑性能和财务模型，旨在概述不同环境风险对公司资产负债表和未来财务预测的影响。*使用先进的机器学习技术来使用历史和未来数据校准这些模型。这使得模型能够不断地学习和适应新的因素*情景规划模型，创建未来情景的概率空间。对新物业的投资和该物业的类型只是需要建模的一种场景类型*缓解建模：创建可相互比较和衡量的可操作策略（例如改造场景），以了解不同时间线的影响frace将财团拥有的几种现有技术结合为创新的新产品：* FinGenie: AI驱动的审计工具，NI审计办公室用于深度账户分析*经济分析师：房地产场景规划（贝尔法斯特、BCP和伊灵使用）*能源和建筑库存模型：由UoS开发并被许多委员会使用。FRACE直接解决了气候和环境影响与金融风险建模的挑战

Financial Risk Analysis for Climate and the Environment (FRACE) embeds environmental and climate risk analysis into the financial decision making for property investors.Investment in property, whether direct or indirect investment, represents one of the cornerstones of the financial industry. When investing in property, climate and environmental risks play and ever increasing role. For example:* Cost to landlord of building fabric retrofit to achieve environmental standards* Cost to landlord of energy retrofit to achieve environmental standards* Comparative cost to developer for different build and energy strategies* Long term cost to tenant, which is an aggregate of maintenance costs, energy costs and taxes.It is a complex market and complex decision space. The cost and risk pressures can be manifest through direct taxation, indirect taxation, legislation and new compliance measures, through to the softer measures of market sentiment, which in turn is felt through rental and resale revenues. The return in investment for current and future property investment is therefore highly dependent on government policy, market performance, technology innovation and eventually end user sentiment.FRACE addresses this challenge by using advanced accounting techniques to model these risks as discounts on future projected value of assets. This method turns softly qualified environmental risk into hard measurable impacts to a companies balance sheet and future project revenues and costs.There are three four aspects to the FRACE model* Engineering, building performance and financial models are create to outline the impact of different environmental risks on a companies balance sheet and future financial projections.* Advanced machine learning techniques are used to calibrate the these models using both historical and future data. This allows the model to continually learned and adapt to new factors* Scenario planning models, create a probability space of future situations. Investments in new property and the type of that property are just one type of scenario to mode* Mitigation modelling: creates actionable strategies that can be compared and measured against each other (e.g. retrofit scenarios) to understand the impact over various time linesFRACE combines several existing technologies, owned by the consortium, into an innovative new product:* FinGenie: AI powered audit tool, used by NI Audit office for deep accounts analysis* Economic analyser: scenario planner for real estate (used by Belfast, BCP and Ealing)* Energy and building stock modeller: developed by UoS and used by many councils.FRACE directly addresses the challenge of modelling climate and environmental impact against financial risk