HORIZON-CL5-2021-D5-05-01 - BeCoM - Better Contrails Mitigation - 101056885

在包括非二氧化碳影响的情况下，航空业对人为气候变化的贡献约为5%，例如，尾迹的形成以及氮氧化物排放对臭氧和甲烷的影响。在各种非CO2效应中，凝结云-卷云辐射强迫是最大的（约2/3），具有很大的不确定性。最关键的影响因素是单个凝结尾迹辐射影响的巨大天气变化。这是BeCoM将更好地预测的数量，因为对单个辐射强迫的了解是避免对整体气候影响贡献最大的那些尾迹的基础。一旦这成为标准，就有可能制定适当的缓解措施，并制定政策驱动的实施计划。BeCoM将解决与持久性凝结尾迹的预测及其依赖天气的个别辐射影响有关的不确定性。BeCoM专注于：1）获得巡航高度上的相对湿度和冰过饱和度的更大和更高分辨率的数据库，以便同化到数值天气预报模式中; 2）在数值天气预报模式中提供更充分的冰云在其过饱和环境中的表示; 3）验证预测，以确定和减少轨迹预报的剩余不确定性。为了促进同化和验证过程，BeCoM将开发一种新的混合人工智能算法。在轨迹预测的基础上，BeCoM将通过轨迹优化方法制定有效避免轨迹的政策框架。BeCoM将使人们能够更好地了解飞机轨迹对气候的影响，并就如何实施空中交通管理战略以减少航空对气候的影响提出建议。BeCoM联盟建立在其知识和专业知识的基础上，涵盖了从大气科学和气候研究到航空业务研究和政策制定的广泛领域。

Aviation contributes to about 5% of the total anthropogenic climate change when including non-CO2 effects, e.g., contrail formation and the impact of NOx emissions on ozone and methane. Among various non-CO2 effects, the contrail-cirrus radiative forcing is the largest (~2/3) with large uncertainties. The most critical affecting factor is the huge weather-induced variability of the radiative impact of individual contrails. This is the quantity, BeCoM will predict better since the knowledge of the individual radiative forcing is the basis for avoidance of just those contrails that contribute most to the overall climate impact. Once this is standard, it will be possible to formulate adequate mitigation measures and develop policy-driven implementation schemes. BeCoM will address the uncertainties related to the forecasting of persistent contrails and their weather-dependent individual radiative effects. BeCoM focuses on: 1) obtaining a larger and higher resolution database of relative humidity and ice supersaturation at cruise levelsfor assimilation into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models; 2) providing more adequate representation of ice clouds in their supersaturated environment in the NWP models; and 3) validation of the predictions to determine and reduce the remaining uncertainties of contrail forecasts. To facilitate the assimilation and validation process, BeCoM will develop a novel hybrid artificial intelligence algorithm. Based on the contrail prediction, BeCoM will develop a policy framework for effective contrail avoidance through a trajectory optimization approach. BeCoM will enable a better understanding of contrail’s climate impact and formulate recommendations on how to implement strategies to enable air traffic management to reduce aviation's climate impact. The BeCoM consortium builds on its knowledge and expertise covering a wide spectrum from atmospheric science and climate research to aviation operations research and policy development.