THE EFFECTS OF TEENAGE AND ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS

在这项建议的研究计划中，我们将：（1）制定和实施一个 一种新的准实验方法， 人类胎儿发育的某些生物过程的随机性， 即染色体异常流产的发生， 结合调查数据，将统计上的稳健性和严密性降低 未成年和/或非婚生子女影响的上限 对母亲成年后的一系列社会经济结果的影响;（2）测试 经济学和社会学理论解释为什么有些妇女 青少年，而其他人没有通过验证是否估计， 结合这些理论， 在我们的范围内;（3）使用替代类型的信息和/或 假设结合我们的非参数界限来探索 为了收紧我们提出的因果效应的非参数界限， 早育和婚外生育，以便更准确地 检查行为类型的不太高度参数化的版本， 假设，这种比较优势和/或共同因素结构， 在以前的研究中使用。使用国家纵向研究的数据 和各种来源的补充数据， 生成染色体异常的发生率估计值 流产和其他生殖事件，我们将开发这种新的 调查青少年和非婚生子女影响的方法 生育时间：高中毕业率，高中后 教育程度、劳动力参与率和工资 结婚和保持婚姻的倾向， 享受福利和生活在贫困中的倾向， 结果将在女性20多岁时进行衡量。

In this proposed research project, we will: (1) develop and implement a new quasi- experimental method that which exploits information on the random nature of certain biological processes of human fetal development, namely the occurrence of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages, in conjunction with survey data, to put statistically robust and tight lower and upper bounds on the effect of teenage and/or illegitimate childbearing on a range of socioeconomic outcomes of the mother as an adult; (2) test economic and sociological theories of why some women have children as teenagers while others do not by validating whether estimators that incorporate these theories yield estimates of teenage childbearing that lie within our bounds; and (3) use alternative types of information and/or assumptions in conjunction with our non-parametric bounds to explore ways to tighten our proposed non-parametric bounds of the causal effects of early and out-of-wedlock childbearing so that they are more precise and to examine less highly parameterized versions of the types of behavioral assumptions, such comparative advantage and/or common factor structures, used in previous studies. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) and supplementary data from a variety of sources to generate estimates of incidence rates of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages and other reproductive events, we will develop this new methodology to investigate the effects of teenage and out- of-wedlock childbearing on: high school completion rates, post-high school educational attainment, the labor force participation rates and wages achieved, the propensity to marry and remain married, the propensity to receive welfare, and the propensity to live in poverty, where these outcomes will be measured when the woman is in her late 20's.