PERCEPTION OF RISK AND BEHAVIOR IN THE ELDERLY

描述（改编自申请人的摘要）： 最初作为R29 FIRST奖项提交，并作为R 01重新提交 作为对PA-97-065（NIA）题为“社会 认知与衰老" 这个项目的目标是确定个人的风险认知 影响近老年人（51-61岁）的健康行为和决策 关于老年人（70岁以上）的财富持有情况。在近老年人中， 将研究以下健康行为： （乳房X光检查，前列腺筛查和胆固醇筛查），减肥和 锻炼的预防服务旨在降低癌症死亡率 和心脏病减肥和运动都是预防措施， 以及减轻健康冲击造成的伤害。扩大使用 这些预防和缓解措施对降低发病率非常重要 以及心脏病和癌症的死亡率。在老年人中， 利息与资产积累/储蓄减少有关，特别侧重于 住房决定。具体的决定将由卖房子的人来决定， 房地产财富持有。这两个决定将被分析，因为住房 资产可能有较少的测量误差，因为住房是主要的 这是大多数老年人的财富。住房决策很重要 从政策的角度来看，因为它们可能代表预防性储蓄， 长期护理资金，老年人面临的重大风险。 所提出的概念模型是普通贝叶斯学习的扩展 根据信息更新先前风险感知的模型。 我们的模型认为，更新的风险认知反过来会影响行为。 风险认知将被估计为内生解释变量 同时，近老年人的健康行为和住房 老年人的决定。使用的数据库的面板结构 （4波健康和退休研究; 3波资产和健康动态 在最古老的旧）将允许建模的行为在时间3或4 随着对寿命和需要的风险认知的变化， 在第一波和第二波以及第一波和第三波之间的疗养院护理。

DESCRIPTION (Adapted from the Applicant's Abstract): This application was initially submitted as an R29 FIRST Award, and is being re-submitted as an R01 in response to Program Announcement, PA-97-065 (NIA) entitled, "Social Cognition and Aging." The goal of this project is to determine how individual risk perceptions influence health behaviors among the near-elderly (51-61) and decisions regarding wealth holdings among the elderly (70+). Among the near-elderly, the following health behaviors will be studied: the use of preventive services (mammography, prostate screening, and cholesterol screening), weight loss and exercise. The preventive services are designed to reduce mortality from cancer and heart disease. Weight loss and exercise are both preventive measures as well as mitigators of harm that results from health shocks. Expanding the use of these preventive and mitigating measures are important to reduce morbidity and mortality from heart disease and cancer. Among the elderly, the behavior of interest relates to asset accumulation/dissaving, specifically focusing on housing decisions. The specific decisions will be selling a house, and changes in housing wealth holdings. The two decisions will be analyzed because housing assets likely have fewer measurement errors, and because housing is the major component of wealth for most elderly persons. Housing decisions are important from a policy perspective because they may represent precautionary savings to finance long-term care, a substantial risk the elderly face. The proposed conceptual model is an extension of the common Bayesian learning model whereby prior risk perceptions are updated on the basis of information. Our model holds that updated risk perceptions, in turn, influence behavior. Risk perceptions will be estimated as enodogenous explanatory variables simultaneously with health behaviors among the near-elderly and housing decisions among the elderly. The panel structure of the data bases to be used (4 waves of Health and Retirement Study; 3 waves of Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old) will allow for the modeling of behaviors in time 3 or 4 as a function of changes in risk perceptions regarding longevity and of needing nursing home care between waves 1 and 2 and 1 and 3.