Do Nightlights Emissions Enlighten? Exploring the effect of local economic conditions on violence against civilians during civil war

为什么叛军和政府军在内战期间绑架、残害甚至杀害平民？国际社会和各国可以做些什么来保护这些平民？平民伤亡估计数从1989年以来的75万人死亡到1945年以来的2 200万人受害不等。受内战影响国家的政策制定者、发展机构和安全官员都对保护当地社区和防止针对平民的暴力根源感兴趣。虽然很难直接干预内部冲突的活跃地区，但通过在冲突之前或之后的经济发展计划，在当地社区建立复原力，是保护平民的可行策略。为了制定这种战略，我们需要更好地了解当地经济状况与针对平民的暴力行为之间的联系。尽管冲突研究人员在解释内战爆发时非常重视经济条件的影响，但这些理论并没有延续到解释冲突期间的暴力模式。缺乏适当和可靠的数据是造成这种不匹配的原因之一。该项目将为评估经济与暴力之间的联系创造有效和可靠的当地经济状况数据的重要先决条件。创新的新数据集将对卫星测量的夜灯数据进行三角测量，作为乌干达经济发展的随时间变化的定性和定量信息的代理。为了做到这一点，调查人员结合了一位历史学家的经验和对乌干达当地的重要了解，一位地理信息系统专家的地理学家，以及一位非常熟悉针对平民的暴力的理论和经验数据的政治学家。与此同时，该项目将在GW4大学（巴斯、布里斯托尔、埃克塞特、普利茅斯）和乌干达Makerere大学的研究人员和学生以及英国政府和非政府组织的发展实践者之间建立使用地理信息系统（GIS）的能力。调查人员将举办四个针对受众的培训讲习班，使上述利益攸关方具备利用地理数据自行探索重要发展和安全研究问题的能力。

Why do rebels and state forces abduct, maim, and even kill civilians during civil war? What can the international community and individual states do to protect those civilians? Estimates of civilian casualties range from 750,000 deaths since 1989 to 22 million victims since 1945. Policy-makers from civil war affected states, development institutions, and security officials are interested in protecting local communities and preventing the causes of violence against civilians. While it is difficult to intervene directly into active zones of internal conflict, building resilience in local communities through economic development programs either before or in the aftermath of conflict constitutes a plausible strategy to protect civilians. In order to develop such strategies, we need to better understand the link between local economic conditions and violence against civilians. Although conflict researchers put a lot of weight on the influence of economic conditions when explaining the outbreak of civil wars, these theories do not carry over into explaining patterns of violence during conflict. The lack of appropriate and reliable data is one reason for this mismatch. This project will create the important precondition of valid and reliable data on local economic conditions to assess the economics-violence link. The innovative new dataset will triangulate satellite-measured nightlights data as a time-varying proxy for economic development with both qualitative and quantitative information from Uganda. To do so the investigators combine the experience of a historian with crucial local knowledge on Uganda, a geographer who is an expert in Geographic Information Systems, and a political scientist intimately familiar with the theory and the empirical data on violence against civilians. At the same time, the project will build capacity among researchers and students from GW4 universities (Bath, Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth) and Makerere University in Uganda as well as development practitioners from UK governmental and non-governmental organisations to work with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The investigators will develop four audience-targeted training workshops to equip the aforementioned stakeholders with the ability to explore important development and security research problems on their own using geographic data.