ALCOHOL USE, ADDICTION, AND PRICE

这个项目的具体目标是提炼和丰富经验 关于饮酒和饮酒敏感性的文献 过度消费导致酒精饮料价格的差异。 主要的改进涉及到纳入由 成瘾行为的理性经济模型，它强调了 成瘾性商品的当前消费对过去消费的依赖性 以及未来对这种商品的消费。第二个改进是 重复先前关于青年酒类价格敏感性的研究 与20世纪80年代的数据一起使用。第三个改进是对 蒸馏烈酒、啤酒和葡萄酒的需求函数，重点是 交叉替代效应。五个数据集将用于 项目：1962至1962年间各州横截面的时间序列 全国健康与营养体检调查(一) (NHANESIF)；1982年和1989年对高中毕业生进行的调查 密歇根大学社会研究所作为 名为“监测未来”的国家研究计划；以及 密歇根州原始高三学生的跟踪小组研究 从1976级开始每年进行的调查。 结果包括在微型小组中使用酒精(不是饮料专用的) 数据和饮料特定饮酒量与肝硬变 州政府数据中的死亡率。这些目标将通过估计 这些结果的需求函数使用各种多变量 技巧。将解决的一些具体问题包括： 饮酒和过度饮酒成瘾行为？做 饮酒者的行为是短视的还是理性的？反应有多快？ 酒类消费对酒类价格差异的衡量 饮料?这些估计值对这次地震的规模意味着什么 消费对联邦消费税税率变化的反应 酒精饮料？这种影响仅限于不经常饮酒的人，还是像 上瘾模型表明，酗酒者对价格的反应更大吗？ 长期的变化比清淡的饮酒者好吗？青少年饮酒是不是在 20世纪80年代对价格的敏感程度与已发表的研究一样，这些研究将日期用于 20世纪70年代，建议？

The specific aims of this project are to refine and enrich the empirical literature dealing with the sensitivity of alcohol consumption and excessive consumption to differences in the prices of alcoholic beverages. The main refinement pertains to the incorporation of insights provided by a rational economic model of addictive behavior, which emphasized the dependency of current consumption of an addictive good on past consumption and future consumption of that good. The second refinement is a replication of previous research on the price sensitivity of youth alcohol use with data for the 1980s. The third refinement is the estimation of demand functions for distilled spirits, beer, and wine with a focus on cross-substitution effects. Five data sets will be employed in the project: a time series of state cross sections for the years 1962 through 1989; the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I Followup (NHANESIF); the 1982 and 1989 surveys of high school seniors conducted by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research as part of a national research program entitled "Monitoring the Future;" and the followup panel studies of the original high school seniors in the Michigan surveys that have been conducted annually beginning with the class of 1976. Outcomes include alcohol use (not beverage-specific) in the micro panel data and beverage-specific alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality in the state data. The aims will be addressed by estimating demand functions for these outcomes using a variety of multivariate techniques. Some specific questions that will be addressed include: Are alcohol consumption and excessive consumption addictive behaviors? Do drinkers behave myopically or rationally? How responsive are various measures of alcohol consumption to differences in the prices of alcoholic beverages? What do these estimates suggest about the magnitude of the responses of consumption to changes in Federal excise tax rates on alcoholic beverages? Are the effects limited to infrequent drinkers, or as the addictive model suggests, do heavy drinkers respond more to price changes in the long run than light drinkers? Is youth alcohol use in the 1980s as sensitive to price as published studies, which use date for the 1970s, suggest?