ALCOHOL USE, ADDICTION, AND PRICE

该项目的具体目标是完善和丰富经验， 有关酒精消费敏感性的文献， 过度消费导致酒精饮料价格的差异。 主要的改进涉及到纳入的见解提供了一个 成瘾行为的理性经济模型，强调 成瘾性商品当前消费对过去消费的依赖性 和未来的消费。 第二个改进是 重复以前关于青年酒精价格敏感性的研究 使用80年代的数据。 第三个改进是估计 蒸馏酒、啤酒和葡萄酒的需求函数，重点是 交叉替代效应。 五个数据集将在 项目：1962年至1999年的国家横截面时间序列 1989年;国家健康和营养检查调查I随访 （NHANESIF）; 1982年和1989年对高中毕业生进行的调查， 密歇根大学社会研究所作为 题为“监测未来”的国家研究方案; 对密歇根州最初的高中毕业生进行的后续小组研究 从1976年开始每年进行的调查。 结果包括微面板中的酒精使用（非饮料特定） 数据和饮料特定的酒精消费和肝硬化 国家数据中的死亡率。 这些目标将通过估算 这些结果的需求函数使用各种多变量 技术. 将讨论的一些具体问题包括： 酒精消费和过度消费成瘾行为？ 做 饮酒者行为短视还是理性？ 如何响应各种 酒精消费量的措施，以不同的价格，酒精 饮料？ 这些估计表明， 消费对联邦消费税税率变化的反应 酒精饮料？ 这些影响仅限于不经常饮酒的人，还是 成瘾模型表明，酗酒者对价格的反应更大吗？ 从长远来看，饮酒者比饮酒者更容易发生变化。 青少年饮酒是否 20世纪80年代对价格的敏感程度与已发表的研究一样，这些研究使用日期作为价格的敏感程度。 1970年，建议？

The specific aims of this project are to refine and enrich the empirical literature dealing with the sensitivity of alcohol consumption and excessive consumption to differences in the prices of alcoholic beverages. The main refinement pertains to the incorporation of insights provided by a rational economic model of addictive behavior, which emphasized the dependency of current consumption of an addictive good on past consumption and future consumption of that good. The second refinement is a replication of previous research on the price sensitivity of youth alcohol use with data for the 1980s. The third refinement is the estimation of demand functions for distilled spirits, beer, and wine with a focus on cross-substitution effects. Five data sets will be employed in the project: a time series of state cross sections for the years 1962 through 1989; the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I Followup (NHANESIF); the 1982 and 1989 surveys of high school seniors conducted by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research as part of a national research program entitled "Monitoring the Future;" and the followup panel studies of the original high school seniors in the Michigan surveys that have been conducted annually beginning with the class of 1976. Outcomes include alcohol use (not beverage-specific) in the micro panel data and beverage-specific alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality in the state data. The aims will be addressed by estimating demand functions for these outcomes using a variety of multivariate techniques. Some specific questions that will be addressed include: Are alcohol consumption and excessive consumption addictive behaviors? Do drinkers behave myopically or rationally? How responsive are various measures of alcohol consumption to differences in the prices of alcoholic beverages? What do these estimates suggest about the magnitude of the responses of consumption to changes in Federal excise tax rates on alcoholic beverages? Are the effects limited to infrequent drinkers, or as the addictive model suggests, do heavy drinkers respond more to price changes in the long run than light drinkers? Is youth alcohol use in the 1980s as sensitive to price as published studies, which use date for the 1970s, suggest?