IMPROVED VERSUS DETERIORATED PHYSICAL FUNCTIONING

对于长期残疾的老年人来说，通常的预后是他们是 不太可能改善或恢复独立的功能地位。但 计算的转移概率显示出显著的概率 所有残疾程度的改善。然而，人们对此知之甚少。 是什么决定了谁进步了，谁恶化了。这项研究计划 确定改进和改进之间的区别特征 不断恶化的功能状态，并估计每个 特征有助于改善或 恶化。通过发现这些特征，政策制定者将被 更好地制定措施，提高 改善和降低恶化的可能性。 这项研究将基于国家长期护理调查 (NLTCS)和相关联的Medicare(A部分)文件。 功能状态的改善和恶化通过以下指标来衡量 比较两者在日常生活体力活动方面的局限性 好几年了。已知这些年的残疾程度为5388人 (896人改善，1826人保持不变，2666人恶化)。这个 回归分析将基于通用的Logit模型，该模型 将提供单独的系数向量来表示“改进”和 “恶化的”，用“相同的”作为比较的基础。部分 导数或偏差，从 回归系数(13类变量)，可以衡量多少 每个指定的解释变量都会导致 改善和恶化的概率。它的大小 指定变量的效果可以为以下各项提供优先顺序 以政策顺从因素为目标，提高 改善和减少恶化的可能性。

The usual prognosis for long-term disabled elders is that they are not likely to improve or regain independent functional status. But computed transition probabilities reveal significant probabilities of improvement at all levels of disability. Yet, not much is known about what determines who improves and who deteriorates. This study plans to identify the characteristics that differentiate between improving and deteriorating functional status and to estimate how much each characteristic contributes to the probabilities of improvement or deterioration. By finding these characteristics, policy makers will be better equipped to devise measures that raise the probability of improvement and lower the probability of deterioration. The study will be based on the National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) of 1982 and 1984 and the linked Medicare (Part A) file. Improvement and deterioration of functional status are measured by comparing limitations in the physical activities of daily living in both years. The level of disability in these years is known for 5,388 persons (896 improved, 1,826 remained the same, and 2,666 deteriorated). The regression analysis will be based on the universal logit model, which will provide separate coefficient vectors for "improved" and "deteriorated," using "same" as a basis for comparison. Partial derivatives or partial differences, which are computed from the regression coefficients (of 13 types of variables), can measure how much each of the specified explanatory variables contributes to changes in the probabilities of improvement and deterioration. The magnitudes of the effects of the specified variables can provide an order of priority for targeting the policy-amenable factors to enhance the likelihood of improvement and diminish the possibility of deterioration.