IMPROVED VERSUS DETERIORATED PHYSICAL FUNCTIONING

对于长期残疾的老年人，通常的预测是， 不太可能改善或恢复独立的功能状态。 但 计算的转移概率揭示了 改善各级残疾人状况。 然而，我们对 决定谁进步谁退步的东西 本研究计划 识别区分改善和 恶化的功能状态，并估计有多少， 特征有助于改善的可能性，或 恶化 通过发现这些特征，政策制定者将 更有能力制定措施， 改善和降低恶化的可能性。 这项研究将基于国家长期护理调查 （NLTCS）的1982年和1984年和链接的医疗保险（A部分）文件。 功能状态的改善和恶化通过 比较两个国家日常生活中的身体活动限制， 年 这些年来已知的残疾人数为5，388人 (896改善，1，826人保持不变，2，666人恶化）。 的 回归分析将基于通用logit模型， 将为“改进”提供单独的系数向量， “恶化”，使用“相同”作为比较的基础。 部分 导数或偏差，这些导数或偏差是从 回归系数（13种类型的变量），可以衡量多少 每个指定的解释变量都有助于 改善和恶化的可能性。 的大小 指定变量的效果可以为以下各项提供优先级顺序： 针对政策适用因素， 改善和减少恶化的可能性。

The usual prognosis for long-term disabled elders is that they are not likely to improve or regain independent functional status. But computed transition probabilities reveal significant probabilities of improvement at all levels of disability. Yet, not much is known about what determines who improves and who deteriorates. This study plans to identify the characteristics that differentiate between improving and deteriorating functional status and to estimate how much each characteristic contributes to the probabilities of improvement or deterioration. By finding these characteristics, policy makers will be better equipped to devise measures that raise the probability of improvement and lower the probability of deterioration. The study will be based on the National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) of 1982 and 1984 and the linked Medicare (Part A) file. Improvement and deterioration of functional status are measured by comparing limitations in the physical activities of daily living in both years. The level of disability in these years is known for 5,388 persons (896 improved, 1,826 remained the same, and 2,666 deteriorated). The regression analysis will be based on the universal logit model, which will provide separate coefficient vectors for "improved" and "deteriorated," using "same" as a basis for comparison. Partial derivatives or partial differences, which are computed from the regression coefficients (of 13 types of variables), can measure how much each of the specified explanatory variables contributes to changes in the probabilities of improvement and deterioration. The magnitudes of the effects of the specified variables can provide an order of priority for targeting the policy-amenable factors to enhance the likelihood of improvement and diminish the possibility of deterioration.