STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY IN THE NATURAL HISTORY OF AIDS

本提案的目标是制定和评价 研究中使用的统计方法， 获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）的自然史。一 来自加州伯克利大学的合作团队， 加州大学旧金山弗朗西斯科将参与 项目有三个专题特别值得关注。第一个涉及 详细分析艾滋病发病率数据的使用方法， 提供人类免疫缺陷时间分布的估计 病毒（HIV）感染和潜伏期估计 分布第二个问题是关于估计 病毒的感染性与各种 根据接触者人数和感染状况的数据， 已知感染者的伴侣。特别感兴趣的是 处理信息缺乏等问题的统计技术 在感染日期的任何一方，并阐明模式 受感染个体的传染性在从 感染艾滋病。最后，进一步的方法工作是 建议与孵化期间演变的标记变量有关， 在某种程度上衡量免疫系统的衰退。统计模型 必须充分利用这些变量， 临床试验中艾滋病发病的替代反应， 感染时间，当这些是已知的，特别是对于流行的 样本，并了解其在艾滋病发病危险中的作用。 所有方法将酌情适用于各种数据集。这 该项目的一部分将包括关于建造 标记和根据后续行动产生的数据评价标记模型 感染者的群体。

The objective of this proposal is the development and evaluation of statistical methods for use in research related to understanding the natural history of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). A collaborative team from University of California Berkeley, and the University of California, San Francisco, will be involved in the project. Three topics will be of specific interest. The first relates to detailed analysis of methods for the use of data on incidence of AIDS to provide estimates of the distribution of time to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and estimates of the incubation period distribution. The second is concerned with methodology for estimation of properties of infectivity of the virus associated with various kinds of contacts based on data on the number of contacts and infection status of partners of known infected individuals. Of particular interest are statistical techniques which handle issues including lack of information on the dates of infection of either partner and which elucidate patterns of change in infectiousness of infected individuals over the period from infection to onset of AIDS. Finally, further methodological work is proposed relating to marker variables which evolve during incubation and measure in part the decline of the immune system,. Statistical models are necessary to make full use of these variables in such ways as surrogate responses for onset of AIDS in clinical trials, correlates for times of infection when these are known, particularly for prevalent samples, and in understanding their role in the hazard of onset of AIDS. All methods will be applied to various data sets where appropriate. This part of the project will include statistical work on the construction of markers and evaluation of marker models on data arising from follow-up cohorts of infected individuals.