Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making

该项目旨在开发一种启发方法，使团队的多个成员能够对相同的技术问题做出贡献-使专业知识能够准确地结合在一起，同时避免群体和个人的偏见来源。良好的启发方法可以最大限度地减少估计和预测中的偏差，否则会侵蚀价值并导致次优决策。然而，现有的方法忽略了群结构；也就是说，由团队或根据团队的建议做出的决定与个人的决定有不同的特点，并且经常排除使用旨在限制个人偏见的方法。通过将方法编码为计算机化工具，该项目将协助公共和私营部门企业改善集体决策。

This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.