Realigning UK Food Production and Trade for Transition to Healthy and Sustainable Diets

认识到与当前英国饮食消费模式相关的健康不良、疾病和肥胖的巨大成本以及当前食品生产系统造成的环境破坏，使向健康和可持续饮食的过渡成为英国世纪食品政策的关键目标。英国各阶层人口的饮食消费模式与英国健康饮食指南存在很大差异，较贫困的人口饮食最不健康。英国的食品消费仍然严重依赖进口。向健康和可持续饮食的过渡需要消费者的偏好和饮食选择发生重大转变，这可以通过财政措施、行为、公共卫生、监管和供应方干预相结合来实现。然而，如果英国食品生产、贸易和供应链不与消费者需求和环境可持续性限制的预期变化相一致，这种转变就无法成功实现。该项目直接解决了英国食品系统转型计划提出的两个首要问题，涉及（1）向健康和可持续饮食过渡所需的饮食消费，食品生产和贸易模式的变化，以及（2）政府，企业和民间社会需要采取的干预措施，以实现这一转变的食品系统。该项目采取粮食系统办法，同时考虑向健康和可持续饮食过渡对消费、生产、贸易和供应链的影响，并汇集多学科专门知识，包括：（1）消费者需求和消费者偏好变化的经济模型（2）饮食模式分析（3）推导食品一级的环境可持续性指标（3）生产和贸易的部分平衡模型，包括绿色温室气体排放、土地使用、用水和土壤养分平衡;（4）使用规定的偏好技术，（离散选择实验）（5）在当前和新出现的国际和区域贸易政策制度背景下的贸易政策分析（6）农业食品部门供应链和价值链的结构性变化;（7）为行业主导的举措共同设计办法-设计一个协调一致的政策框架，支持向健康和可持续饮食过渡。我们的分析将解决以下复杂的政策挑战：（1）需要考虑财政措施对消费者整个食物篮子的影响，而不是对单个食品消费的影响;（2）财政措施的分配（公平）影响;（3）健康和可持续饮食之间的潜在权衡;（4）国际和区域贸易政策制度的结构对贸易政策措施的制约，以及平衡消费者、国内生产者、进口商和贸易伙伴在执行贸易政策措施方面的作用（5）食品工业对食品开发和营销战略的激励措施可能不支持向健康和可持续饮食过渡（6）社会饮食模式的文化固有性质往往变化缓慢，以及（7）在尊重消费者选择的市场经济中，限制消费者饮食选择的途径非常有限。该项目旨在为一套协调一致的财政和贸易政策干预措施制定蓝图，同时沿着粮食供应和价值链的结构性变革以及行业主导的支持向健康和可持续饮食过渡的举措。

Recognition of the enormous costs of ill-health, disease and obesity associated with current UK dietary consumption patterns and the environmental damage inflicted by current food production systems have made the transition to healthy and sustainable diets the key objective of UK food policy for the 21st century. The dietary consumption patterns of all segments of the UK population show large divergences from the UK dietary guidelines for healthy eating, with the poorer sections of the population having the most unhealthy diets. The UK also remains substantially reliant on imports for its food consumption. The transition to healthy and sustainable diets requires a significant shift in consumer preferences and dietary choices that could be induced through a combination of fiscal measures, behavioural, public health, regulatory and supply-side interventions. However, this transition cannot be successfully accomplished without a realignment of UK food production, trade and supply chains consistent with the anticipated shifts in consumer demand and environmental sustainability constraints. This project directly addresses the two overarching questions posed by the Transforming UK Food Systems programme that relate to (1) the changes in dietary consumption, food production and trade patterns that would be required for a transition to healthy and sustainable diets and (2) the interventions that would be needed across government, business and civil society to deliver this transformed food system. The project takes a food systems approach through a simultaneous consideration of consumption, production, trade and supply chain implications of a transition to healthy and sustainable diets and brings together multidisciplinary expertise encompassing: (1) economic modelling of consumer demand and shifts in consumer preferences (2) dietary pattern analysis (3) derivation of environmental sustainability indicators at food product level (3) partial equilibrium modelling of production and trade incorporating environmental impacts of green house gas (GHG) emissions, land use, water use and soil nutrient balances (4) elicitation of consumer preferences using stated preference techniques (discrete choice experiments) (5) trade policy analysis in the context of current and emerging international and regional trade policy regimes (6) structural changes in the supply and value chains for the agri-food sector and (7) co-design approaches for industry-led initiatives - in designing a coherent policy framework for supporting the transition to healthy and sustainable diets. Our analysis will address the complex policy challenges arising from (1) the need to consider the impact of fiscal measures on consumers' entire food baskets rather than on the consumption of individual food products (2) the distributional (equity) impacts of fiscal measures (3) the potential trade-offs between healthy and sustainable diets (4) the constraints imposed on trade policy measures by the architecture of international and regional trade policy regimes and the need to balance the interests of consumers, domestic producers, importers and trading partners in the implementation of trade policy measures (5) food industry incentives for food product development and marketing strategies that may not support the transition to healthy and sustainable diets (6) the socio-culturally embedded nature of dietary patterns that tend to be slow to change and (7) the very limited avenues for restricting consumer dietary choices in a market economy that respects consumer choice. The project aims to develop a blueprint for a coordinated set of fiscal and trade policy interventions along with structural changes to food supply and value chains and industry-led initiatives for supporting the transition to healthy and sustainable diets.