INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF SPACIAL MOBILITY 1940-1980

我们的研究协调了对个人流动性差异的分析 分析区域内和区域间的人口再分布。 我们将分析美国人口的空间流动性和趋势， 1940- 1980年期间根据人口普查和 其他数据。 这项工作将提供全面的描述性信息 关于人口亚群的流动倾向的差异， 随着时间的推移，这些差异的变化， 再分配 流动过程的离散选择和风险模型将 也可以发展，允许有关行为变化的推论 流动的结构，以及这些结构与流动的总体模式的关系， 迁移 最初，我们的工作将分为两个分项目。 一是聚焦 关于个人流动选择的报告， 移动性，整合本地和长距离移动的分析。 另一个研究人口再分配，侧重于总量 美国各县的移民统计数据。 它采用了一种新的模式， 恰当地反映了移徙者个人选择的累积影响， 促进关于移民作用的明确假设检验 总体移民的偏好，以及经济和 地方的环境特点。 最后，我们整合这两个子项目，开发允许 同时估计个人特征的影响， 地点的特点-起源和潜力的特点 目的地-关于个人和集体的流动性 人口再分配。

Our research coordinates the analysis of individual mobility differentials with the analysis of population redistribution within and among regions. We will analyze the spatial mobility of the U.S. population and trends in population redistribution over the period 1940-80, based on census and other data. The work will provide comprehensive descriptive information about differentials in mobility propensity for population subgroups, changes over time in these differentials, trends in population redistribution. Discrete choice and hazard models of mobility process will also be developed, allowing inferences concerning changes in the behavioral structure of mobility, and how these relate to aggregate patterns of migration. Initially, our efforts will be divided into two subprojects. One focuses on the mobility choices of individuals, examining the determinants of mobility, integrating the analysis of local and long distance movement. The other examines population redistribution, focusing on aggregate migration statistics for U.S. counties. It applies a new model that more aptly reflects the cumulative impact of individual migrant choices, facilitating explicit hypothesis tests about the role of migrant preferences in aggregate migration, as well as accounting for economic and environmental characteristics of places. Finally, we integrate the two subprojects, developing structures that allow simultaneous estimation of the effects of personal characteristics and the characteristics of locations--those of the origin and potential destinations--on the mobility of individuals and the aggregate redistribution of population.