INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF SPACIAL MOBILITY 1940-1980

我们的研究协调了对个体流动性差异的分析 并对区域内和区域间人口再分布进行了分析。 我们将分析美国人口的空间流动性和 1940-1980年期间的人口再分布，基于人口普查和 其他数据。这项工作将提供全面的描述性信息 关于人口亚群流动倾向的差异， 随着时间的推移，这些差异、人口趋势 重新分配。移动过程的离散选择和风险模型将 也被开发出来，允许关于行为变化的推断 移动性的结构，以及它们与聚合模式的关系 迁移。 最初，我们的努力将分为两个子项目。一个焦点是 关于个人的流动性选择，考察决定因素 机动性，结合本地和远程移动的分析。 另一种是考察人口再分配，重点放在总量上 美国各县的移民统计数据。它采用了一种新的模式， 恰如其分地反映了个体移民选择的累积影响， 促进对移民角色的明确假设检验 在总体移民方面的偏好，以及考虑到经济和 场所的环境特征。 最后，我们集成了两个子项目，开发了允许 同时估计个人特征和心理状态的影响 地点的特征--那些起源和潜在的特征 目的地--论个人与群体的流动性 人口的重新分布。

Our research coordinates the analysis of individual mobility differentials with the analysis of population redistribution within and among regions. We will analyze the spatial mobility of the U.S. population and trends in population redistribution over the period 1940-80, based on census and other data. The work will provide comprehensive descriptive information about differentials in mobility propensity for population subgroups, changes over time in these differentials, trends in population redistribution. Discrete choice and hazard models of mobility process will also be developed, allowing inferences concerning changes in the behavioral structure of mobility, and how these relate to aggregate patterns of migration. Initially, our efforts will be divided into two subprojects. One focuses on the mobility choices of individuals, examining the determinants of mobility, integrating the analysis of local and long distance movement. The other examines population redistribution, focusing on aggregate migration statistics for U.S. counties. It applies a new model that more aptly reflects the cumulative impact of individual migrant choices, facilitating explicit hypothesis tests about the role of migrant preferences in aggregate migration, as well as accounting for economic and environmental characteristics of places. Finally, we integrate the two subprojects, developing structures that allow simultaneous estimation of the effects of personal characteristics and the characteristics of locations--those of the origin and potential destinations--on the mobility of individuals and the aggregate redistribution of population.